Wild Turkey Bill H4820

[PJ1012]

PJ, there is no theory surrounding the importance of April 10 buddy.
You can lead a horse to water but can't make em drink.

If it’s a theory then you must have a study proving the importance. Show it to me. Not a study showing when peak incubation is either.

[Calibogue]

PJ there are Decades of data that demonstrate what the average Nest initiation date is southeast wide. Nothing more to say about that you can dig up all the data on this you want.

[centurian]

Report only shows nc has been seeing an increase in harvest while most states are claiming a decrease. Second the turkey population are not nearly dispersed as sc where there are huntable populations in every county.

[PJ1012]

Report only shows nc has been seeing an increase in harvest while most states are claiming a decrease. Second the turkey population are not nearly dispersed as sc where there are huntable populations in every county.

You are correct. NC has had an increase in harvest every year. But as I said, NC was farther behind in the restocking program than most southern states. Take 20001 for instance where SC killed 25k birds and NC killed less than 10k. Perhaps NC hasn’t peaked yet and started the downward trend like most southern states. I don’t buy the late start dates for the success. Mississippi’s recruitment the last couple years mirrors NC and they start a full month sooner.

[pccutter]

You are correct. NC has had an increase in harvest every year. But as I said, NC was farther behind in the restocking program than most southern states. Take 20001 for instance where SC killed 25k birds and NC killed less than 10k. Perhaps NC hasn’t peaked yet and started the downward trend like most southern states. I don’t buy the late start dates for the success. Mississippi’s recruitment the last couple years mirrors NC and they start a full month sooner.

Everyone wants to compare NC to other states when talking about turkey numbers. 1st the reported numbers in SC from around 2000 to 2020 where only estimated, NC has always been check-in or call-in, so the numbers can be misleading. I can tell you the turkey population west of Charlotte is down, with a few exceptions around towns or in some subdivision areas protecting them from harvest. To the east, some area are just now seeing turkeys, leading to the growth, I believe. These areas are seeing lots of pressure. I believe, hope I'm wrong, numbers in eastern NC will fall off sharply in a few short years. NC will be holding meetings next week about a later start date and reducing some seasons. One of NC's most popular and leading biologist, back when turkeys were being reintroduced always said, NC season should start a week later. Personally I agree and prefer hunting them later into their mating season. I don't like sitting in front of a flock, waiting on them to walk by me. I enjoy actual calling in of a bird and interacting with him one on one and that normally doesn't happen until later in the season, but to each his own.

[PBiz]

You are correct. NC has had an increase in harvest every year. But as I said, NC was farther behind in the restocking program than most southern states. Take 20001 for instance where SC killed 25k birds and NC killed less than 10k. Perhaps NC hasn’t peaked yet and started the downward trend like most southern states. I don’t buy the late start dates for the success. Mississippi’s recruitment the last couple years mirrors NC and they start a full month sooner.

When does your book come out?

[PJ1012]

When does your book come out?

When people have nothing to bring to the conversation, they just bring personal attacks.

[raybird]

I love how in the last 10 years we now have all this “science”.

Why did Chamberlain sell out to the NwTf? I doubt it had anything to do with money.

[Duck cutter]

I regret not having clicked on this thread sooner

[PJ1012]

I love how in the last 10 years we now have all this “science”.

Why did Chamberlain sell out to the NwTf? I doubt it had anything to do with money.

I said it at the bottom of page 1 of this thread. Follow the money and you’ll get a lot of answers…..

[PBiz]

When people have nothing to bring to the conversation, they just bring personal attacks.

I mean surely you’ve compiled a list of good and bad internet podcast research.. Publish your findings..

And turkeys being less grouped up, means less turkeys dying at each onset…Which means more gobblers having a much less interrupted breeding season..

Which I would bet, means more hens bred..

[PBiz]

When people have nothing to bring to the conversation, they just bring personal attacks.

I said it at the bottom of page 1 of this thread. Follow the money and you’ll get a lot of answers…..

Kind of like what you just did here..

[PJ1012]

I mean surely you’ve compiled a list of good and bad internet podcast research.. Publish your findings..

And turkeys being less grouped up, means less turkeys dying at each onset…Which means more gobblers having a much less interrupted breeding season..

Which I would bet, means more hens bred..

This whole thread is full of things I have heard from reputable podcast and read in various places. I have also talked to some of the people who have done the podcast personally. Scott and I will never agree on this issue. He and I both know this. But I respect him and his views because he never comes at people with personal attacks. He brings subject matter to the argument just like I feel like I do to make my argument. He doesn't agree with me, and I don't with him, but at the end of the day I respect his opinion. He isn't the only one though. There are several of people in the other camp I have sat down with and heard their side of the argument. Some of them you know really well. The common goal is we all want the same thing, more turkeys. I can promise you that. I pray this fixes the issue because someday I want Tripp to be able to hunt these grand birds.

Everything you just said is a theory. Sure, it makes sense but has not been proven. The same people who are pushing that theory say there is no proof male decoys are causing a problem because there is no science proving they do. Decoys are a theory too. It is kind of talking out both sides of the mouth.

[PJ1012]

Kind of like what you just did here..

Mike Chamberlain has more turkey knowledge on wild turkeys in one square inch of his brain than I will ever know. The man is extremely knowledgeable. But if you don't the money he has backing him is pushing a lot of this, then you are crazy.

[PJ1012]

https://cdn.fbsbx.com/v/t59.2708-21/...=669B2117&dl=1

Here is the Tennessee study for those that would like to read it.

[PBiz]

I’m crazy Bo.. Can’t read. It have any pictures?

[PJ1012]

I’m crazy Bo.. Can’t read. It have any pictures?

The pictures are for Berkeley County……

[AnythingFeathers]

So PJ....lets take some numbers that were published in a table of the study because no one has seen the raw data as they have requested.
And I'll add this.....The journal they published this in has a data requirement (data sharing) that still has not been met.
Here are the numbers that were put into a table.....please try to pay attention here!

Here’s the data, pre-delay followed by after-delay:

Nesting rate – 71 to 86, 19% increase.

Clutch size – 9 to 10, 10% increase.

Hatchability – 84 to 87, 4% increase.

Nest success – 29 to 35, 19% increase.

Hen survival – 73 to 76, 4% increase.

If you then do a simulation using 100 hens, here’s what you get.

Pre-delay – 100 hens, 73 survive, and 71% initiate a nest = 52 nests. Of those 52 nests, 29% hatch which results in 15 hatched clutches averaging 9 eggs, which results in 135 eggs on the landscape. Of these, 84% hatchability equates to 114 poults.

Post-delay – 100 hens, 76 survive, and 86% initiate a nest = 65 nests. Of those 65 nests, 35% hatch which results in 23 hatched clutches averaging 10 eggs, which results in 230 eggs on the landscape. Of these, 87% hatchability equates to 200 poults. That’s a 55% increase in poult production.

If you ignore the hen survival and simply start with 100 hens on the landscape, the final numbers are 155 poults vs 258 – a 50% increase in poult production.

So based on these data, a simple delay in the start of the season, coupled with no changes to habitat, and no changes to predator communities would be expected to result in at least a 50% increase in the numbers of poults on the ground.

Once again, this is info that was extrapolated from the table of info from the published study.
You don't have to be a critical thinker or biologist to mock up the info and calculate what I just did above.
But, you do need to check yourself if you think season timing does not matter!

TN and other states are ignoring this study and sticking to delayed start dates because they can do (and have done) what I just did above.
There would have likely been more credibility in this study had they stepped up and said we need more data....?
But, they decided to go on air and make public their "opinion" that season timing does not matter because.
One of those podcasts has been pulled and is no longer available....

If that was really how the information is to be calculated then it would be a no brainer, and Harper, Buehler and the other 5 people who's names are on that study would be shouting from the rooftops to DELAY, DELAY, DELAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But they are not. Why?
You believe that there is some alternative motive to the study? There is NO upside to disproving the hypotheses put forward in this study. Therefore no reason to skew or manipulate the data. Everyone wants a solution.
I'm pretty sure they would much rather have found a solution after 6-7 years of study.

As far as not having to be a critical thinker or biologist to do the calculations, you do need to at least be able to do middle school math to do your interpretation.
71 to 86 is actually 21.1%
114 up to 200 is a 75.4% increase
And if you had done the the math with out rounding up, used numbers as given and used your formula you would have had a 80% increase.

I am not pretending that I know how to do the math that was used to analyze this data, but you damn sure don't.

How the data was calculated and compared is way more complicated than you have tried to make it sound.
What you have done here is use and calculate these numbers to suit you narrative. If your current career doesn't pan out, you should try out the televangelist route, or politics (as a democrat, of course).

They are not ingnoring more because they think it's wrong, than it makes them look bad. They have made suggestions that have resulted in changes in not just in regulation, but in laws. That is no small deal.

And everyone who has hung their hat, and reputation on this theory (you'd be one of those) doesn't want egg on their face.

The self checking should go both ways.