Duck brood survey portends difficult hunting season in North Dakota

The number of duck broods observed during the North Dakota Game and Fish Department's annual mid-July survey was the lowest in nearly three decades. This year's fall duck flight is expected to be down 36% from last year.

BLAKE NICHOLSON



Predictions of a poor duck breeding season in North Dakota due to drought have proven true, and hunters this fall should expect "unfamiliar" conditions, according to the state Game and Fish Department.

The number of duck broods observed during the department's annual mid-July survey was the lowest in nearly three decades. This year's fall duck flight is expected to be down 36% from last year, according to Mike Szymanski, the agency's migratory game bird management supervisor. The fall duck flight estimate is based on the breeding population, duckling production and adult survival between spring and fall.

“Hunters should take advantage of early migrants like blue-winged teal during the first two weeks of the season," Szymanski said. "We won’t be able to depend on local duck production to the extent that we have in the past.”

The news is not unexpected. More than half of North Dakota is in extreme or exceptional drought, the two worst categories, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, published Thursday. All of the state is in some form of drought. In past dry years there have been areas of the state that still remained wet, but "There's nothing like that this year," Szymanski said. "It's all dry."

Sobering surveys
A spring survey indicated the breeding duck population in North Dakota was down nearly 27% from last year, and Szymanski at the time warned that behavioral cues suggested there would be little breeding activity due to historically poor wetland conditions.

Game and Fish's May water index was down 80% from 2020 and nearly 68% below the average over the past seven decades. This year's survey was the fifth-driest, an abrupt change from last year -- the sixth-wettest, following record-breaking precipitation in the fall of 2019.

"It was crazy wet for five months; then it stopped raining and snowing for two years," Szymanski said.

The percentage change in the number of wetlands holding water from last year to this year is the highest in the history of the breeding duck survey, which has been done annually for 74 years.

The summer duck brood survey involves 18 routes throughout North Dakota, except west and south of the Missouri River. Biologists count and classify duck broods and water areas within 220 yards on each side of the road. The survey started in the mid-1950s, and all routes used today have been in place since 1965.

The number of broods observed this year dropped 49% from last year’s count -- to the lowest level since 1994 -- and was 23% below the 1965-2020 average. The average brood size was 6.46 ducklings, down 4% from last year’s estimate.

Hunting prospects
The most recent drought briefing from the National Weather Service indicates drought will persist into the fall. Some areas of North Dakota have seen improvements, but rainfall continues to be "hit and miss," and average temperatures in August are expected to be above-average.

"Small lakes and reservoirs continue to experience water level declines along with climbing water temperatures," the report said. "Harmful algal blooms are being reported in many lakes along with water quality problems in stock dams and dugouts. Overall, there appears to be little reason to believe these problems will go away anytime soon."

Game and Fish biologists will conduct a survey in mid-September to assess wetland conditions heading into the waterfowl hunting season. The regular duck season opens Sept. 25 for resident hunters and Oct. 2 for nonresidents. Szymanski said hunters should expect difficult conditions, though there will be localized concentrations of ducks, geese and swans as birds migrate south.

Resident waterfowl hunters spend an estimated $20 million in the state every year, according to state Tourism Division data. Szymanski said it's hard to predict what hunters will do when faced with the prospect of a poor season -- especially with a lack of information on ducks that might be coming south from Canada. Wildlife officials north of the border have canceled waterfowl surveys two years in a row due to the coronavirus pandemic.

"It's going to be rough, and there's probably not a lot of alternatives to look to," Szymanski said. But he also stressed that "We're not at the point where things are just a disaster for duck populations."

Reasons for optimism
This year's breeding duck estimate, while being down dramatically from last year, was still 19% above the long-term average. And while the number of broods is the lowest since 1994, this year's count is still 62% above the 1965-93 average. Duck numbers began increasing in 1993 due to a string of wet years, ample grassland habitat and the loss of the predator red fox population in the state due to disease.


"Our last 25 years have been extremely high from a (duck) population side because we've had such good production," Szymanski said.

“One year of drought won’t be a disaster for ducks, but we could have issues if these conditions continue into next year,” he said.

Periodic drought is a normal part of the prairie climate cycle, allowing wetlands to regenerate nutrients and vegetation, according to the Ducks Unlimited conservation group. Szymanski said that wildlife officials "are hoping that this is a short-term thing, part of the natural process, and not a long-term drought."

"You just never know -- all of the Prairie Pothole Region could get 60-80 inches of snow this winter, and all of a sudden it's a wet spring again," he said.

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