Wild Turkey Bill H4820

[SCWOODROW]

Anybody have any info on where this is currently? Thanks fellas

[Calibogue]

Sitting on the governor's desk waiting for him to sign it into law.

[PJ1012]

A theory based off another study won out over proven science. I pray I am wrong and we have more turkeys than we know what to do with in 3-4 years. I hope this is the silver bullet some claim it is. My gut says it won’t be like science has already proven. Just hate the science didn’t come out sooner in the process. Thankfully there is a sunset on it if it doesn’t work…..

[Calibogue]

A theory based off another study won out over proven science. I pray I am wrong and we have more turkeys than we know what to do with in 3-4 years. I hope this is the silver bullet some claim it is. My gut says it won’t be like science has already proven. Just hate the science didn’t come out sooner in the process. Thankfully there is a sunset on it if it doesn’t work…..

So PJ....lets take some numbers that was published in a table in the study because no one has seen the raw data as they have requested.
And I'll add this.....The journal they published this in has a data requirement that still has not been met.
Here are the numbers that were put into a table.....please try to pay attention here!

Here’s the data, pre-delay followed by after-delay:

Nesting rate – 71 to 86, 19% increase.

Clutch size – 9 to 10, 10% increase.

Hatchability – 84 to 87, 4% increase.

Nest success – 29 to 35, 19% increase.

Hen survival – 73 to 76, 4% increase.

If you then do a simulation using 100 hens, here’s what you get.

Pre-delay – 100 hens, 73 survive, and 71% initiate a nest = 52 nests. Of those 52 nests, 29% hatch which results in 15 hatched clutches averaging 9 eggs, which results in 135 eggs on the landscape. Of these, 84% hatchability equates to 114 poults.

Post-delay – 100 hens, 76 survive, and 86% initiate a nest = 65 nests. Of those 65 nests, 35% hatch which results in 23 hatched clutches averaging 10 eggs, which results in 230 eggs on the landscape. Of these, 87% hatchability equates to 200 poults. That’s a 55% increase in poult production.

If you ignore the hen survival and simply start with 100 hens on the landscape, the final numbers are 155 poults vs 258 – a 50% increase in poult production.

So based on these data, a simple delay in the start of the season, coupled with no changes to habitat, and no changes to predator communities would be expected to result in at least a 50% increase in the numbers of poults on the ground.

[Calibogue]

A theory based off another study won out over proven science. I pray I am wrong and we have more turkeys than we know what to do with in 3-4 years. I hope this is the silver bullet some claim it is. My gut says it won’t be like science has already proven. Just hate the science didn’t come out sooner in the process. Thankfully there is a sunset on it if it doesn’t work…..

So PJ....lets take some numbers that were published in a table of the study because no one has seen the raw data as they have requested.
And I'll add this.....The journal they published this in has a data requirement (data sharing) that still has not been met.
Here are the numbers that were put into a table.....please try to pay attention here!

Here’s the data, pre-delay followed by after-delay:

Nesting rate – 71 to 86, 19% increase.

Clutch size – 9 to 10, 10% increase.

Hatchability – 84 to 87, 4% increase.

Nest success – 29 to 35, 19% increase.

Hen survival – 73 to 76, 4% increase.

If you then do a simulation using 100 hens, here’s what you get.

Pre-delay – 100 hens, 73 survive, and 71% initiate a nest = 52 nests. Of those 52 nests, 29% hatch which results in 15 hatched clutches averaging 9 eggs, which results in 135 eggs on the landscape. Of these, 84% hatchability equates to 114 poults.

Post-delay – 100 hens, 76 survive, and 86% initiate a nest = 65 nests. Of those 65 nests, 35% hatch which results in 23 hatched clutches averaging 10 eggs, which results in 230 eggs on the landscape. Of these, 87% hatchability equates to 200 poults. That’s a 55% increase in poult production.

If you ignore the hen survival and simply start with 100 hens on the landscape, the final numbers are 155 poults vs 258 – a 50% increase in poult production.

So based on these data, a simple delay in the start of the season, coupled with no changes to habitat, and no changes to predator communities would be expected to result in at least a 50% increase in the numbers of poults on the ground.

Once again, this is info that was extrapolated from the table of info from the published study.
You don't have to be a critical thinker or biologist to mock up the info and calculate what I just did above.
But, you do need to check yourself if you think season timing does not matter!

TN and other states are ignoring this study and sticking to delayed start dates because they can do (and have done) what I just did above.
There would have likely been more credibility in this study had they stepped up and said we need more data....?
But, they decided to go on air and make public their "opinion" that season timing does not matter because.
One of those podcasts has been pulled and is no longer available....

[raybird]

anybody taking bets?

I’ll take the under

[Duck Tape]

The bet should be, how many years before we take up a turkey bill again? Im on 5

[flockbuster]

Foghorn should veto the bill, send it back and tell them I'll sign it when you change the start to April 10 like the majority of reputable biologists recommended

[fro]

So based on these data, a simple delay in the start of the season, coupled with no changes to habitat, and no changes to predator communities would be expected to result in at least a 50% increase in the numbers of poults on the ground.

This is a very important point you make here! These two things that individual land managers, owners, and or sportsman can do to help the resources, but the state can not regulate. The ONLY thing the state can do is control season dates and harvest allotment. That's the take home message for everyone who realizes there is a major problem and have been crying fro the DNR to do something about it...

[PJ1012]

Foghorn should veto the bill, send it back and tell them I'll sign it when you change the start to April 10 like the majority of reputable biologists recommended

So if they don’t agree with the THEORY they aren’t reputable….. got it

[PJ1012]

So PJ....lets take some numbers that were published in a table of the study because no one has seen the raw data as they have requested.
And I'll add this.....The journal they published this in has a data requirement (data sharing) that still has not been met.
Here are the numbers that were put into a table.....please try to pay attention here!

Here’s the data, pre-delay followed by after-delay:

Nesting rate – 71 to 86, 19% increase.

Clutch size – 9 to 10, 10% increase.

Hatchability – 84 to 87, 4% increase.

Nest success – 29 to 35, 19% increase.

Hen survival – 73 to 76, 4% increase.

If you then do a simulation using 100 hens, here’s what you get.

Pre-delay – 100 hens, 73 survive, and 71% initiate a nest = 52 nests. Of those 52 nests, 29% hatch which results in 15 hatched clutches averaging 9 eggs, which results in 135 eggs on the landscape. Of these, 84% hatchability equates to 114 poults.

Post-delay – 100 hens, 76 survive, and 86% initiate a nest = 65 nests. Of those 65 nests, 35% hatch which results in 23 hatched clutches averaging 10 eggs, which results in 230 eggs on the landscape. Of these, 87% hatchability equates to 200 poults. That’s a 55% increase in poult production.

If you ignore the hen survival and simply start with 100 hens on the landscape, the final numbers are 155 poults vs 258 – a 50% increase in poult production.

So based on these data, a simple delay in the start of the season, coupled with no changes to habitat, and no changes to predator communities would be expected to result in at least a 50% increase in the numbers of poults on the ground.

Once again, this is info that was extrapolated from the table of info from the published study.
You don't have to be a critical thinker or biologist to mock up the info and calculate what I just did above.
But, you do need to check yourself if you think season timing does not matter!

TN and other states are ignoring this study and sticking to delayed start dates because they can do (and have done) what I just did above.
There would have likely been more credibility in this study had they stepped up and said we need more data....?
But, they decided to go on air and make public their "opinion" that season timing does not matter because.
One of those podcasts has been pulled and is no longer available....

What you aren’t saying in your theory is the rest of the state of Tennessee that wasn’t on a delay and most of the southeast was producing poults at the same rate while the delay study was going on. There was a spike in poults across the whole southeast during the time period.

It boils down to this, the 2 biologist that are pushing this theory on season delays have the most money backing them. Money drives it all. One of those biologist doesn’t even have a huntable population of birds on the land he manages. His words, not mine. He has admitted that on multiple podcast.

TFT and the Wild Turkey Science podcast haven’t taken it down. Lashley and Gulbsy have even done a follow up episode doubling down on their belief on Harper and Buehler’s study. I’ve listed the link for those that would like to listen.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000654660421

[2thDoc]

when do yall plant chufa?
and is it one "f" or two?

[trkykilr]

when do yall plant chufa?
and is it one "f" or two?

As close to August 1 as possible. 1 F

[Calibogue]

What you aren’t saying in your theory is the rest of the state of Tennessee that wasn’t on a delay and most of the southeast was producing poults at the same rate while the delay study was going on. There was a spike in poults across the whole southeast during the time period.

It boils down to this, the 2 biologist that are pushing this theory on season delays have the most money backing them. Money drives it all. One of those biologist doesn’t even have a huntable population of birds on the land he manages. His words, not mine. He has admitted that on multiple podcast.

TFT and the Wild Turkey Science podcast haven’t taken it down. Lashley and Gulbsy have even done a follow up episode doubling down on their belief on Harper and Buehler’s study. I’ve listed the link for those that would like to listen.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000654660421

You are correct, there were two different populations of turkeys that were functioning at entirely different levels during this study. This is why no conclusion such as this should ever even have been drawn. Maybe the right thing to do was say, we need to extend the study and collect more data. But instead, they threw out an opinion that season timing didn't matter. We all know the importance of Predator control and quality habitat no one is denying that. Fyi, Gulsby stepped up on stage 2 weeks ago in Virginia in front of every state wild turkey biologist from the southeast and researchers and stated that Alabama needed to go to a March 15th opener because seasons start date does not matter. It was not received well from the remainder of the professional community.

[Calibogue]

What you aren’t saying in your theory is the rest of the state of Tennessee that wasn’t on a delay and most of the southeast was producing poults at the same rate while the delay study was going on. There was a spike in poults across the whole southeast during the time period.

It boils down to this, the 2 biologist that are pushing this theory on season delays have the most money backing them. Money drives it all. One of those biologist doesn’t even have a huntable population of birds on the land he manages. His words, not mine. He has admitted that on multiple podcast.

TFT and the Wild Turkey Science podcast haven’t taken it down. Lashley and Gulbsy have even done a follow up episode doubling down on their belief on Harper and Buehler’s study. I’ve listed the link for those that would like to listen.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000654660421

You are correct, there were two different populations of turkeys that were functioning at entirely different levels during this study. This is why no conclusion such as this should ever even have been drawn. Maybe the right thing to do was say, we need to extend the study and collect more data. But instead, they threw out an opinion that season timing didn't matter. We all know the importance of Predator control and quality habitat no one is denying that. Fyi, Gulsby stepped up on stage 2 weeks ago in Virginia in front of every state wild turkey biologist from the southeast and researchers and stated that Alabama needed to go to a March 15th opener because seasons start date does not matter. It was not received well from the remainder of the professional community.

[PJ1012]

when do yall plant chufa?
and is it one "f" or two?

Mine has been in the ground since June 8th. Mine take a hard pounding so I need as much yield as possible. I’ve found the later you plant your yield is reduced. Just sprayed 24db for broadleaf and clethodim for grasses.

[2thDoc]

i'm denying that predator control has done what they said it would.

[PJ1012]

You are correct, there were two different populations of turkeys that were functioning at entirely different levels during this study. This is why no conclusion such as this should ever even have been drawn. Maybe the right thing to do was say, we need to extend the study and collect more data. But instead, they threw out an opinion that season timing didn't matter. We all know the importance of Predator control and quality habitat no one is denying that. Fyi, Gulsby stepped up on stage 2 weeks ago in Virginia in front of every state wild turkey biologist from the southeast and researchers and stated that Alabama needed to go to a March 15th opener because seasons start date does not matter. It was not received well from the remainder of the professional community.

The rest of Tennessee was producing poults at the almost identical rate has the delayed counties. Your numbers show the counties pre-study and during the study. Those numbers spiked not because of the delayed season dates but because the whole southeast spiked. The non delayed counties were producing at the same rates almost as the delayed counties during the time period. Hell Mississippi was producing as the same rates as NC during that time period and they start a month later.

I like Gulsby even more now. Take a damn stand.

[Calibogue]

This is the last I'm going to say about this TN study but, by in large it has and is being rejected by agencies across the country that are responsible for setting season dates.
There are more discussions of delayed start dates including some western states.
This speaks volumes....

[PJ1012]

This is the last I'm going to say about this TN study but, by in large it has and is being rejected by agencies across the country that are responsible for setting season dates.
There are more discussions of delayed start dates including some western states.
This speaks volumes....

The man pushing the theory of season framework has the most money backing him. Those are the facts.

Many state biologist now a days are tree hugging liberals. Not saying ours are because for the most part they aren’t. That can’t be said for a lot of places. That being said, it would not surprise me one bit if more state biologist are jumping on board for less time in the field for hunters.

Your group got what they wanted for the most part. Now let’s sit back and see if this magic bullet works the next 4 seasons. I pray it does and I’m wrong. But my gut says it won’t.