Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 29

Thread: Whitetail Vulnerability Predictions for 2023

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Moncks Corner
    Posts
    15,064

    Default Whitetail Vulnerability Predictions for 2023

    See below and attached for a PDF with a little more data including actual predicted dates. It is in four groups by counties that are roughly Game Zones.

    What's different from previous years is that I'm using the whitetail records to define the calendar curve instead of just deer kill by me and the family. I went back only to the year 2000 because game zones, seasons and laws have changed so much since the early years and going to 2000 still left enough data to create a clean curve. This, I think, makes the blue predictions better but it also makes the red "by calendar" graph a little more clunky.

    I'm still using our deer to create the moon curve for several reasons. I'm trying to predict when mature whitetail bucks are vulnerable of their own accord. There are a lot of deer in the record book that I'm sure were killed over corn, hit by cars, shot in front of dogs, etc. I really want to weed those deer out on the moon curve.

    The charts have all of Oconee, Pickens and Greenville counties in Game Zone 1, when in actuality, GZ1 is only portions of those counties. The record books only record whole counties so I didn't have a choice. I feel certain that the early October hump in the first chart is driven by deer in those counties that are were mostly in the Game Zone 2 portion of those counties.

    The attached pdf has a ranking for the best 15 days for each grouping.

    I'll update as needed but don't intend to do any more with this for a while.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Attached Files Attached Files
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  2. #2
    jwilliams's Avatar
    jwilliams is offline 2th Doc's Fishing understudy
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Sumter
    Posts
    18,602

    Default

    I like it! Thanks
    Quote Originally Posted by Glenn View Post
    Does Elton John know you have his shotgun?

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Camden SC
    Posts
    2,989

    Default

    I was hoping to see this again this year.

    Thanks!

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Camden, SC
    Posts
    754

    Default

    With this weather and your chart, I am now ready for deer season again. Thank you for the submission. It is very awesome.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    SC
    Posts
    4,169

    Default

    I appreciate what you do with this. I try to plan our annual camping/hunting trip around it. I also try to hunt the hot times here at home. I'm retired so I can hunt whenever I want to but I show this to my wife and let her know I really need to be in the woods on those days.
    "My resume is the trail of destruction behind me. " Bucky Katt

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Camden sc
    Posts
    6,579

    Default

    I will say this mid Oct in Kershaw co is spot on my cameras started blowing up with daylight buck movement oct and went thru Halloween
    "I am a man, not an animal and I always try to conduct myself accordingly. Doing anything less is just giving up and expecting (and being okay) with failure."
    Rubberhead

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Lexington County
    Posts
    5,135

    Default

    Good stuff! Thanks!!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Aug 2021
    Location
    NC
    Posts
    2,803

    Default

    My experience goes right along with your second chart. We do have success with nice bucks the last week of December which is flat on your chart, I think because there are less folks in the woods beating around.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    48,894

    Default

    The way to correlate the lunar data info is to use lunar date instead of calendar date.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Moncks Corner
    Posts
    15,064

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tater View Post
    The way to correlate the lunar data info is to use lunar date instead of calendar date.
    I don't understand what you mean.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    48,894

    Default

    A lunar cycle is 27 days. A month is 30 or 31 days (yes, February is 28 or 29 days, but that doesnít come into play here).

    You have it logged by calendar day now. You plan to log it by lunar data. I would suggest simply correlate it by lunar day, 1 thru 27, by converting monthly calendar days to their respective lunar day.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Moncks Corner
    Posts
    15,064

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tater View Post
    A lunar cycle is 27 days. A month is 30 or 31 days (yes, February is 28 or 29 days, but that doesn’t come into play here).

    You have it logged by calendar day now. You plan to log it by lunar data. I would suggest simply correlate it by lunar day, 1 thru 27, by converting monthly calendar days to their respective lunar day.
    Oh. BTW - the lunar cycle is 29.5345... days long. I've totally included the lunar cycle in the predictive model. I basically multiply the calendar curve (the red line) by the lunar curve to get the predictive forecast. Look at October 21. It's a great day based on the calendar forecast but basically a zero in the predictive model because the moon is 50%. The best lunar times are around the new and full moons that's why there's roughly 15 day period between peaks on the blue bars.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    48,894

    Default

    The phases are 29, the orbit is 27, so yeah, the 29 day number is more relatable.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Moncks Corner
    Posts
    15,064

    Default

    Thanks.

    Here's the moon curve I'm using - it's basically the number of mature deer that were killed against the visible percentage of the moon's disk during waxing and waning period. This is really what's driving the whole thing.

    I used these deer because I know they are all mature deer and I know how each one of them was killed. I know none of them were run by dogs, killed by a car, shot over a corn pile, etc. They were all out walking doing what an undisturbed buck would do. I even backcasted Coastal Woodie's 6 big deer from last year against the moon chart as a sanity check and got a good fit. He did have one where I have a gap, the 80% to 89% waxing, but it was killed on an 89% day within a couple of hours of clicking over the the tall bar on 90% to 100%. If I had more deer in the moon part of the model it would probably reflect that.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    48,894

    Default

    I did a study with thousands of non baited trail camera photos relating trigger time to moon position. It was a shit ton of work adjusting moon position time across the whitetail range (I had people supplying pictures and theiir subsequent Lat/Lon from a LOT of states) and time zones, but it was interesting. And yes, the picture cycle showed a good relationship to moon position.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    Horry, SC
    Posts
    5,096

    Default

    For what it’s worth. My 8/15, 8/28, 9/21 bucks were killed feeding in a beanfield. 10/6 buck was chasing does in a beanfield. 10/20 was working a scrape line in a river swamp and 11/7 chasing a doe in the TN hardwoods.

    Also had mature buck encounters on 10/8, 10/17 and 12/17.
    First one feeding on acorns, second and third running does.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Moncks Corner
    Posts
    15,064

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Coastal Woodie View Post
    For what itís worth. My 8/15, 8/28, 9/21 bucks were killed feeding in a beanfield. 10/6 buck was chasing does in a beanfield. 10/20 was working a scrape line in a river swamp and 11/7 chasing a doe in the TN hardwoods.

    Also had mature buck encounters on 10/8, 10/17 and 12/17.
    First one feeding on acorns, second and third running does.
    Here's how your 5 SC and Tennessee buck lined up on the moon chart. There's a red X for each of those deer. From left to right, it's the 8/28 deer, 10/6, 11/7, 8/15, then the 9/21 buck. The 10/8 would have been the tall bar in the middle. 10/17 would have been in the empty middle on the left and 12/17 was bar to the left of that.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    9,490

    Default

    Good lord y'all could mess up a wet dream!

    The more you're in the woods the greater you chances of encounters with deer are. Its a tool, not a Bible!
    Thank you Rubberhead. This is awesome great work. It is very nice of you. It is easier for most to understand hard dates and not where the moon will be, in7-8 months from now.

    And the dates are guide lines, if you kill a deer a day or two earlier or later good for you. dont get mad with Runnerhead he is doing a great job.
    Inspector Gadget
    Inspector Gadget
    Inspector Gadget
    Inspector Gadget
    Go, Gadget Go!
    Go, Gadget Go!

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2001
    Location
    Columbia, SC
    Posts
    45,206

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tater View Post
    The way to correlate the lunar data info is to use lunar date instead of calendar date.
    bingo
    Ugh. Stupid people piss me off.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    Horry, SC
    Posts
    5,096

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Rubberhead* View Post
    Here's how your 5 SC and Tennessee buck lined up on the moon chart. There's a red X for each of those deer. From left to right, it's the 8/28 deer, 10/6, 11/7, 8/15, then the 9/21 buck. The 10/8 would have been the tall bar in the middle. 10/17 would have been in the empty middle on the left and 12/17 was bar to the left of that.
    That’s very interesting. Thank you for the information.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •