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Thread: Whitetail Vulnerability Predictions for 2023

  1. #1
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    Default Whitetail Vulnerability Predictions for 2023

    See below and attached for a PDF with a little more data including actual predicted dates. It is in four groups by counties that are roughly Game Zones.

    What's different from previous years is that I'm using the whitetail records to define the calendar curve instead of just deer kill by me and the family. I went back only to the year 2000 because game zones, seasons and laws have changed so much since the early years and going to 2000 still left enough data to create a clean curve. This, I think, makes the blue predictions better but it also makes the red "by calendar" graph a little more clunky.

    I'm still using our deer to create the moon curve for several reasons. I'm trying to predict when mature whitetail bucks are vulnerable of their own accord. There are a lot of deer in the record book that I'm sure were killed over corn, hit by cars, shot in front of dogs, etc. I really want to weed those deer out on the moon curve.

    The charts have all of Oconee, Pickens and Greenville counties in Game Zone 1, when in actuality, GZ1 is only portions of those counties. The record books only record whole counties so I didn't have a choice. I feel certain that the early October hump in the first chart is driven by deer in those counties that are were mostly in the Game Zone 2 portion of those counties.

    The attached pdf has a ranking for the best 15 days for each grouping.

    I'll update as needed but don't intend to do any more with this for a while.
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    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  2. #2
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    I like it! Thanks
    Quote Originally Posted by Glenn View Post
    Does Elton John know you have his shotgun?

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    I was hoping to see this again this year.

    Thanks!

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    With this weather and your chart, I am now ready for deer season again. Thank you for the submission. It is very awesome.

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    I appreciate what you do with this. I try to plan our annual camping/hunting trip around it. I also try to hunt the hot times here at home. I'm retired so I can hunt whenever I want to but I show this to my wife and let her know I really need to be in the woods on those days.
    "My resume is the trail of destruction behind me. " Bucky Katt

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    I will say this mid Oct in Kershaw co is spot on my cameras started blowing up with daylight buck movement oct and went thru Halloween
    "I am a man, not an animal and I always try to conduct myself accordingly. Doing anything less is just giving up and expecting (and being okay) with failure."
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    Good stuff! Thanks!!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    My experience goes right along with your second chart. We do have success with nice bucks the last week of December which is flat on your chart, I think because there are less folks in the woods beating around.

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    The way to correlate the lunar data info is to use lunar date instead of calendar date.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tater View Post
    The way to correlate the lunar data info is to use lunar date instead of calendar date.
    I don't understand what you mean.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

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    A lunar cycle is 27 days. A month is 30 or 31 days (yes, February is 28 or 29 days, but that doesn’t come into play here).

    You have it logged by calendar day now. You plan to log it by lunar data. I would suggest simply correlate it by lunar day, 1 thru 27, by converting monthly calendar days to their respective lunar day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tater View Post
    A lunar cycle is 27 days. A month is 30 or 31 days (yes, February is 28 or 29 days, but that doesn’t come into play here).

    You have it logged by calendar day now. You plan to log it by lunar data. I would suggest simply correlate it by lunar day, 1 thru 27, by converting monthly calendar days to their respective lunar day.
    Oh. BTW - the lunar cycle is 29.5345... days long. I've totally included the lunar cycle in the predictive model. I basically multiply the calendar curve (the red line) by the lunar curve to get the predictive forecast. Look at October 21. It's a great day based on the calendar forecast but basically a zero in the predictive model because the moon is 50%. The best lunar times are around the new and full moons that's why there's roughly 15 day period between peaks on the blue bars.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

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    The phases are 29, the orbit is 27, so yeah, the 29 day number is more relatable.

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    Thanks.

    Here's the moon curve I'm using - it's basically the number of mature deer that were killed against the visible percentage of the moon's disk during waxing and waning period. This is really what's driving the whole thing.

    I used these deer because I know they are all mature deer and I know how each one of them was killed. I know none of them were run by dogs, killed by a car, shot over a corn pile, etc. They were all out walking doing what an undisturbed buck would do. I even backcasted Coastal Woodie's 6 big deer from last year against the moon chart as a sanity check and got a good fit. He did have one where I have a gap, the 80% to 89% waxing, but it was killed on an 89% day within a couple of hours of clicking over the the tall bar on 90% to 100%. If I had more deer in the moon part of the model it would probably reflect that.
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    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

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    I did a study with thousands of non baited trail camera photos relating trigger time to moon position. It was a shit ton of work adjusting moon position time across the whitetail range (I had people supplying pictures and theiir subsequent Lat/Lon from a LOT of states) and time zones, but it was interesting. And yes, the picture cycle showed a good relationship to moon position.

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    For what it’s worth. My 8/15, 8/28, 9/21 bucks were killed feeding in a beanfield. 10/6 buck was chasing does in a beanfield. 10/20 was working a scrape line in a river swamp and 11/7 chasing a doe in the TN hardwoods.

    Also had mature buck encounters on 10/8, 10/17 and 12/17.
    First one feeding on acorns, second and third running does.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coastal Woodie View Post
    For what it’s worth. My 8/15, 8/28, 9/21 bucks were killed feeding in a beanfield. 10/6 buck was chasing does in a beanfield. 10/20 was working a scrape line in a river swamp and 11/7 chasing a doe in the TN hardwoods.

    Also had mature buck encounters on 10/8, 10/17 and 12/17.
    First one feeding on acorns, second and third running does.
    Here's how your 5 SC and Tennessee buck lined up on the moon chart. There's a red X for each of those deer. From left to right, it's the 8/28 deer, 10/6, 11/7, 8/15, then the 9/21 buck. The 10/8 would have been the tall bar in the middle. 10/17 would have been in the empty middle on the left and 12/17 was bar to the left of that.
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    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

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    Good lord y'all could mess up a wet dream!

    The more you're in the woods the greater you chances of encounters with deer are. Its a tool, not a Bible!
    Thank you Rubberhead. This is awesome great work. It is very nice of you. It is easier for most to understand hard dates and not where the moon will be, in7-8 months from now.

    And the dates are guide lines, if you kill a deer a day or two earlier or later good for you. dont get mad with Runnerhead he is doing a great job.
    Yup, he's crazy...


    like a fox. The dude may be coming in a little too hard and crazy but 90% of everything he says is correct.

    Sort of like Toof. But way smarter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tater View Post
    The way to correlate the lunar data info is to use lunar date instead of calendar date.
    bingo
    Ugh. Stupid people piss me off.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rubberhead* View Post
    Here's how your 5 SC and Tennessee buck lined up on the moon chart. There's a red X for each of those deer. From left to right, it's the 8/28 deer, 10/6, 11/7, 8/15, then the 9/21 buck. The 10/8 would have been the tall bar in the middle. 10/17 would have been in the empty middle on the left and 12/17 was bar to the left of that.
    That’s very interesting. Thank you for the information.

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