Pine tree value

[TennDan]

Would you look at that? It only took 3 replies.


Pay the man, 2th.

He's back.

[Southernduck]

So - I would equate your question to someone coming into your office and saying their tooth hurts.

All sorts of stuff can impact the 'value' 'over time'

First and foremost is the main thing you can't change - location.
Next hardest thing to 'change' - soils
Then you can get into genetics and a different treatment options to 'change' the capabilities of the trees/soil.
Next thing to figure out is what rotation you would want to utilize? one thin, two thins, no thins? You going to try and get some pole quality trees or just clear cut when you hit X year and the price works for you? In the right place you could probably even get away with a pulpwood rotation and have a better ROI. But I digress.


Now... I know what you will say to all that - that you just want a damn $ amount. Not all that BS. So lets go with 'average' or 'typical' for all of the questions above. Average soil, average genetics, average rotation of two thinnings and a clear cut.


I am 100% sure someone will disagree with me, this is SCDUCKS after all. Also tooth, these would all be gross values. Don't forget you gotta pay your useless forester and the tax man. Here we go for tooth for some loblolly pine:

First Thin Income, Age 15ish: $200-$400/acre
Second Thin Income, 5ish years after first thin: $800 - $1,200ish/acre
Clear Cut, age 25-30: $1,500 - $2,500/acre

So - some simple statistics: over a 25-30 year rotation, $2,500 per acre on the low end, $4,100 on the high end although it pains me to make such large generalizations. Keep in mind the time value of money as well ought to be factored into all of this. $4,100 in thirty years is not worth $4,100 today.

Again - I think this is a major oversimplification of all this but final thought - there are things you can do to change these numbers, both in regard to biological aspects and product markets.

Edit to add - Keep in mind you will have a cost to establish the stand that needs to be factored in as well, if you are starting from scratch. Let's say $250-$500 per acre.

All that to say, its a shitty investment unless you can place a big number on recreational value

[TheVisorGuy]

I'll just say it. Your pines suck.

[dubs]

All that to say, its a shitty investment unless you can place a big number on recreational value

Nowadays definitely more so than in the past. Its one thing if your purpose in owning land is strictly to maximize ROI. Its another if you have the family farm that you will never sell but want to make some money off of it while you enjoy it.

SE Pine States stumpage prices continue to really struggle on a macro, long-term trend scale and that certainly hurts return potential. But these values are round about with $25 sawtimber. Tough to forecast out on a 25 or 30 year timeframe but that investment starts to look a lot different if in 25 years prices are back up closer to $50/ton. Who knows. People like to think they do, but I know for a fact no early 2000's harvest scheduling model had pine sawtimber being $20/ton in 2020. So nobody really knows...


But, it definitely has its benefits from an investment standpoint as apposed to more liquid and volatile assets.

[ADP]

As mentioned earlier there are too many factors to answer the question without gaining more info from you.

Even then I can give you what it would be worth today, who knows what the market will be at maturity.

I can say land will be worth more as an investment with planted trees on it than letting it regenerate naturally.

Everyone's situation is different though.

[Timberman22]

+/-90 tons/ac. @ +/-$28-$30/ton = $2,520-$2,700......over 30 years. Factor in a good consultant to get poles marked and you can increase it by 10% to help pay your commission fees! :-)

All jokes aside..... reforestation, seedling genetics, planting density, soil type, thinning regime, natural disturbance can affect the per acre value dramatically up or down. In 30 years the timber value may be double as everyone will have their timber in a easement or some carbon exchange and supply doesn't meet demand. Be nice to have a crystal ball.

[Otter 1200]

I had about 90 acres of 2nd thinning pines completed in September, 60 acres of it was sprayed after 1st thinning (2016-2017)-sweet gum control/ fertilizer supposedly right after. My land is not easily accessible-very steep hills and valleys. Wound up getting about $250 per acre. Not sure if good or bad (forester gets 10%), however both thinning’s so far I’m aggravated with the general mess that is made. I also clear cut about 10 acres that had never been cut and it’s worse. Bought a Dozer to start cleaning up, at least the two cuts paid for the dozer and I can put clearings/food plots/0pond wher I want them.

[Southernduck]

+/-90 tons/ac. @ +/-$28-$30/ton = $2,520-$2,700......over 30 years. Factor in a good consultant to get poles marked and you can increase it by 10% to help pay your commission fees! :-)

All jokes aside..... reforestation, seedling genetics, planting density, soil type, thinning regime, natural disturbance can affect the per acre value dramatically up or down. In 30 years the value may be double as everyone will have their timber in a easement or some carbon exchange.

Carbon exchanges are a load of bullshit. The land owner/farmer/tree grower is getting screwed in almost every carbon exchange

[Timberman22]

Carbon exchanges are a load of bullshit. The land owner/farmer/tree grower is getting screwed in almost every carbon exchange

Whether they're bullshit or not Carbon/Solar projects combined with recreational value is what's driving land values. We've got a laundry list of clients that may disagree with you. ROI is important whichever bucket drives it. The bundle of rights with land ownership is getting much bigger than just growing trees.

[smitch320]

I had about 90 acres of 2nd thinning pines completed in September, 60 acres of it was sprayed after 1st thinning (2016-2017)-sweet gum control/ fertilizer supposedly right after. My land is not easily accessible-very steep hills and valleys. Wound up getting about $250 per acre. Not sure if good or bad (forester gets 10%), however both thinning’s so far I’m aggravated with the general mess that is made. I also clear cut about 10 acres that had never been cut and it’s worse. Bought a Dozer to start cleaning up, at least the two cuts paid for the dozer and I can put clearings/food plots/0pond wher I want them.

Wait what? Really?

[UPSTATEWATERFOWLER]

So what is more valuable (on average), 100 acres of 20 year old pines or 100 acres of half hardwoods (mature), half hay fields? Assume both are within an hour of a Greenville, Columbia, or similar type city. I’m assuming both could be used recreationally.

[jevans]

Boy oh boy.

[Southernduck]

Whether they're bullshit or not Carbon/Solar projects combined with recreational value is what's driving land values. We've got a laundry list of clients that may disagree with you. ROI is important whichever bucket drives it. The bundle of rights with land ownership is getting much bigger than just growing trees.

You sell a $10/credit to the exchange that sells it to Apple for $100 and you do all the paperwork. Shitty deal. Yes you are the dumbass that signed up but seriously. Basically my thoughts are lock the gate and throw away the key on your carbon credits. As for solar that’s a whole nother can of worms.

[ADP]

So what is more valuable (on average), 100 acres of 20 year old pines or 100 acres of half hardwoods (mature), half hay fields? Assume both are within an hour of a Greenville, Columbia, or similar type city. I’m assuming both could be used recreationally.

I'd rather have the pine.

[TheVisorGuy]

So what is more valuable (on average), 100 acres of 20 year old pines or 100 acres of half hardwoods (mature), half hay fields? Assume both are within an hour of a Greenville, Columbia, or similar type city. I’m assuming both could be used recreationally.

Does anybody Turkey hunt it?

[ecu1984]

I am sure GBelly can tell you

[eastover_cowboy]

unless you have the equipment and time to hay it, 100 acres of pines. although hay prices are up right now.

[Otter 1200]

Wait what? Really?

You have a question or just a comment??

[smitch320]

You have a question or just a comment??

Real question, hate they’re making 10% and it was left in a mess. If you use a consultant it’s their job to make sure that doesn’t happen. And if it does, it’s taken care of.

[Duckman#1]

If you do pull the trigger on this a hire a logger remember to talk your way through it and don’t punch it