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Thread: TD 9

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Default TD 9

    Crown Weather Services
    Crown Weather Plus Tropical Weather Discussion

    Issued: Friday Morning, September 23, 2022
    ________________________________________
    Tropical Depression #9 Forms Over The Central Caribbean This Weekend & Is Expected To Be A Hurricane By The Time It Reaches The Northwestern Caribbean Late Sunday; Tropical Depression #9 Will Likely Be A Hurricane Threat To Central & South Florida Around Tuesday & Wednesday
    ________________________________________

    Tropical Depression #9:
    11 am EDT/10 am CDT Statistics:
    Location: 14.2 North Latitude, 70.1 West Longitude or about 515 miles to the east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
    Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 Millibars or 29.71 Inches.
    Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 14 mph.
    Satellite imagery indicates that the thunderstorm activity has increased around what was Invest 98-L. Additionally, this system has had a well-defined center for the past 24 hours or so. Because of this, we now have Tropical Depression #9 located over the central Caribbean. Initial reports from reconnaissance aircraft investigating the depression indicates that it’s not quite yet a tropical storm, but that likely will occur as soon as later today or tonight.
    A look at the environmental conditions reveals that there is still 25 knots of northeasterly wind shear from the outflow of Fiona impacting this system. Much lower wind shear values are close by, however, and it appears that TD #9 will push into a much more favorable environment for strengthening as soon as tonight and Saturday. Because of this, I expect that this system will begin its strengthening phase within the next 12 to 24 hours with some significant strengthening very likely this weekend. In fact, the SHIPS intensity guidance forecasts a 57 percent chance for this system to increase in strength to at least an 115 mph hurricane by Monday morning.
    Based on everything that I’ve looked at, I do think that this system will really take off in terms of strengthening with rapid intensification quite possible once it finds a favorable environment this weekend.
    What this means for the northwestern Caribbean is that this system will very likely be a hurricane once it reaches the northwestern Caribbean by late Sunday into Monday. This means that tropical storm conditions are very likely for Jamaica on Saturday night into Sunday and hurricane conditions look likely for the Cayman Islands late Sunday night and Monday. The model guidance are in very good agreement for the track across the Caribbean with the super ensemble guidance showing a track just south of Jamaica and then into the northwestern Caribbean in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands.
    Because of all this, I strongly urge those of you in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, to go over your hurricane supplies now. Tropical storm conditions are very likely for Jamaica Saturday night into Sunday and for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula around Sunday night and Monday. Hurricane conditions are very likely for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba by Sunday night and Monday.
    Once Tropical Depression #9 moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by about Monday night and Tuesday morning, it will begin to approach an upper level trough of low pressure over the eastern United States. The strength of this trough and where the depression is in relation to the trough will be crucial in determining its ultimate track.
    Scenarios from the ensemble guidance range from a curve to the northeast that takes a major hurricane across far South Florida during the day on Tuesday to a slower curve to the northeast that would lead to a track of a major hurricane into the coast of western and southwestern Florida between Tampa and Fort Myers during the day on Wednesday. Another scenario posed by some of the ensemble guidance is for an eastern Gulf of Mexico hurricane that slows way down in forward speed and gradually weakens due to increasing wind shear.
    Here Are My Thoughts Regarding The Possible Impacts To Florida & Beyond: The upper level weather pattern of a trough of low pressure over the eastern United States next week and a ridge of high pressure over the central United States means that a curve to the northeast looks very likely once this system pushes into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. We are still in a time of year where the upper level troughs aren’t as deep or strong as they would be just a month from now. Because of this, I’m not buying into the ensemble members that are forecasting a nearly east-northeast track missing Florida completely to the south.
    Instead, I think we’ll see a more gradual turn to the northeast leading to this system coming ashore somewhere between Tampa and Naples as about a 100 to 120 mph hurricane late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A track to the northeast right across the central Florida Peninsula looks plausible during Wednesday morning. This means that widespread hurricane conditions are possible during Tuesday night and Wednesday across an area of Florida that stretches from the entire I-4 corridor in Central Florida southward to areas of southwest Florida including Fort Myers and Naples to Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast of Florida, including Stuart, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach and Melbourne.
    This means that it’s time now to get ready across Central Florida, Southwest Florida and across the Space Coast and Treasure Coast of Florida. Don’t wait until the watches are issued. Your best bet is to purchase gas, food and water that you can use later. Don’t be one of those people in a huge line when those watches and warnings are posted.
    Beyond This, we are going to have to really watch the position of that trough and whether it lifts out or not. Some of the ensemble guidance suggests that the trough could remain in place leading to this system moving right up the entire coast of the Eastern United States bringing both heavy rain and wind impacts late next week. Other ensemble guidance members point to the possibility of the trough lifting out with a ridge of high pressure building in. Should that occur, it would lead to this system stalling off of the coast of northeast Florida or Georgia and then being guided into the coastal Carolinas later next week. The uncertainty with this part of the track forecast is quite high and it’ll be something that we’ll have to figure out in the days to come. That said, it’s somewhat unusual for a hurricane to stall near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina at the end of September and the beginning of October. Normally, this time of year, these eastern troughs are able to pull tropical systems up and not leave them behind. Because of this, I think the odds for a track up along or very near the East Coast of the United States late next week are higher than a stall scenario.


    Model Track Forecast:

    Satellite Imagery:

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2021
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    My food plot would welcome TD9

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