Rubberhead's 2022 White-tail Buck Activity Predictor...

[Rubberhead*]

All my neighbor's cows were laying down in the pasture when I got to the farm today. That usually translates to a slow deer time. Maybe they'll be rested up by the afternoon.

My nephew sat this morning, said the bucks moved early. I do think we're heading into a quiet week.

[Coastal Woodie]

They were moving yesterday

[JABIII]

Does on the move now...

[WoodieSC]

I’ve seen more of the normal does around my place this past few days. Last week they were on a neighborhood walk-about.

Say a nice looking 6 pt chasing a doe this morning in the wood lot next door. Then he stopped about 100 yds up as the dog and I were taking a walk and just stared at us before resuming his chase.

It will undoubtedly get quiet again like it does every year from this next week until after Christmas. I knew I should have taken that big doe a few weeks ago, but didn’t want my season to end so early.

[WhitewaterDuck]

Rubberhead, in your models, is location a variable that can easily be tweaked once all your other data is input? I shot the 178” buck last year (2021) on Oct. 7 and saw him out in the field killable on Oct 1 and Oct 2.

I think that all correlated with high vulnerability on your model, but since I’m in Wyoming and killed him on an extended summer feeding pattern (summer lingered bad last year), I’m thinking that is more of a coincidence.

I killed my 158” buck on Oct 17 in 2020. I don’t remember you having this model up for 2020, but I’m curious to see what you model said for Oct 17, 2020.

Regardless, if there is a not-too-difficult means by which you could tweak your model to correlate with different locations, I’d love to see what it is saying for Wheatland, WY.

As for the rut and what it means…I’m 100% with you. I think most if not all hunters view the rut as a utility that enables them to get a crack at an otherwise uncrackable big buck…so I think most are thinking of the seeking phase. That said, from 10 years of daylight to dark sits during the first 2 to 3 weeks of November in Ohio, seeking phase during daylight really kicks in 10-14 days before the big boys start seeking, and you see a ton of little bucks and tweeners moving a lot. Big boys only seem to seek for a day or two before locking on and following the doe wherever she goes…this includes the madness of chasing/grunting that, if you are lucky, breaks out on an insane level.

I’ve seen a couple of oblivious big bucks chasing and grunting in SC in 35+ years of hunting there, so if you’ve actually figured something half-ass predictable out regarding SC buck rut vulnerability, you deserve the Nobel Prize…and I really want you to tweak it for my location!

[Rubberhead*]

Rubberhead, in your models, is location a variable that can easily be tweaked once all your other data is input? I shot the 178” buck last year (2021) on Oct. 7 and saw him out in the field killable on Oct 1 and Oct 2.

I think that all correlated with high vulnerability on your model, but since I’m in Wyoming and killed him on an extended summer feeding pattern (summer lingered bad last year), I’m thinking that is more of a coincidence.

I killed my 158” buck on Oct 17 in 2020. I don’t remember you having this model up for 2020, but I’m curious to see what you model said for Oct 17, 2020.

Regardless, if there is a not-too-difficult means by which you could tweak your model to correlate with different locations, I’d love to see what it is saying for Wheatland, WY.

As for the rut and what it means…I’m 100% with you. I think most if not all hunters view the rut as a utility that enables them to get a crack at an otherwise uncrackable big buck…so I think most are thinking of the seeking phase. That said, from 10 years of daylight to dark sits during the first 2 to 3 weeks of November in Ohio, seeking phase during daylight really kicks in 10-14 days before the big boys start seeking, and you see a ton of little bucks and tweeners moving a lot. Big boys only seem to seek for a day or two before locking on and following the doe wherever she goes…this includes the madness of chasing/grunting that, if you are lucky, breaks out on an insane level.

I’ve seen a couple of oblivious big bucks chasing and grunting in SC in 35+ years of hunting there, so if you’ve actually figured something half-ass predictable out regarding SC buck rut vulnerability, you deserve the Nobel Prize…and I really want you to tweak it for my location!

So, starting with the obvious, my 2020 model predicted the best days were from October 16 through October 18th. So, I'm not surprised you killed your big deer on the 17th...

Here's a link to the 2020 forecast.

https://scducks.com/forum/showthread...tivity-Almanac

When looking for my 2020 forecast, I found this...Flockbuster killed a nice one on October 17, 2020 too...

https://scducks.com/forum/showthread...head-was-right

The forecast is based on two things - moon phase, which is identical everywhere, and photoperiod. Photoperiods are consistent across latitude but, as we've seen in SC, deer in similar latitudes have very different reactions to identical photoperiods so I would need enough data from your local area to build that half of the forecast.

The good news, maybe is that your location does seem to jibe with the forecast I do for SC's lowcountry and midlands. Certainly the bi-weekly ups and downs driven by moon phase should, at least, give you an idea of the best days in a given month.

[WhitewaterDuck]

Well, the rut supposedly kicks in here nearer Thanksgiving. I’ve got three 130-140” bucks showing up after dark…today they showed well after dark. One has broken main beam, one has broken tines, and the other is a clean, young 10. Your predictor lines up with my gut on when the big boy/boys that are whipping these smaller but still nice bucks will show up and move in daylight. We shall see!

[Rubberhead*]

Well, the rut supposedly kicks in here nearer Thanksgiving. I’ve got three 130-140” bucks showing up after dark…today they showed well after dark. One has broken main beam, one has broken tines, and the other is a clean, young 10. Your predictor lines up with my gut on when the big boy/boys that are whipping these smaller but still nice bucks will show up and move in daylight. We shall see!

I've had several very nocturnal bucks, all the sudden, walking an hour before dark on the day before a new moon. If it was me, I'd be out sitting early on the evening of the Nov. 22...

[Shallow Minded]

Sat 12th, Sun the 13th and today we had an amazing amount of bucks on the move. I shot this one at 7:30 yesterday

[WhitewaterDuck]

I've had several very nocturnal bucks, all the sudden, walking an hour before dark on the day before a new moon. If it was me, I'd be out sitting early on the evening of the Nov. 22...

Yes. Last year, I was sitting for 5 days for the 178 incher to show himself again and waiting on cold front to inspire him. I was getting down about the moon phase, as it was nearing a new moon. I recalled never having luck on a full or new moon, and the phase was 1%…and he stepped out with an hour of daylight left. I looked back at Oct 17, 2020, and I realized I had killed the 158 incher on a 1% illuminated new moon when he showed himself with about an hour of daylight left. So, you basically just typed what I’ve been thinking. If the rut doesn’t kick in and get them chasing/seeking in daylight before then, I’ve got a lot of Hope riding in the 22nd and the low % illuminated days around that new moon. It lines up with your predictor, and if we go 3 for 3, I’m buying you a bottle of bourbon of your choice!

[WhitewaterDuck]

The necks on those bucks I have on camera are swelling up! Another nice 10 showed, and they are on the move just prior to (~1 hr before) the moon being directly overhead. So each am the movement has been closer and closer to being in shooting light. Rut is approaching; that new moon with moon overhead well into the morning is happening Tuesday; weather is right; I’m hopeful. Hope to be posting tongue pics soon.

[WhitewaterDuck]

I was not going to hunt yesterday (22nd) until a bud in SC called me to tell me thanks; I told him last week that your predictor showed and that you said the evening of 22nd would be money. He went out had a great afternoon, saw 10+ deer, and shot a nice meat buck for the freezer. That’s when I remembered your pm 22nd recommendation and hauled ass to the woods.

The best buck I have on camera this year was out and moving a solid hour before last light, and despite being set up on the wrong end of the property, I got a perfect broadside 215 yard shot right at dark when I noticed him skirting the ridge-top as I walked up to my truck to head home. I just deployed the bipod legs, got a perfectly solid rest on my truck-bed cover, dialed up the VX6, and “Crack…WHOP!” I love how the bullet hitting a deer makes more of an impression and seems as loud as the rifle report from this suppressed 7mag. Could not find where he was standing last night with my crappy light, so I waited until this am.

I thought I’d be struggling with the decision to shoulder mount him or euro mount him today, but that isn’t how it turned out. I never found the first speck of blood, hair, guts…nada. I’ve killed more deer with a rifle than I can recall, and I’ve never shot one and not found it until yesterday/today. It was an easy freaking chip-shot from a rock solid rest with bipod and zero wind. It sounded like I shot into a swimming pool. All I can figure is that I punched the stomach, and the fragmenting bullet I’m using designed for killing at long range likely punched a 7mm hole straight through without expansion or fragmentation.

I’m sick that I killed a deer that woulda grown into something truly special and have nothing to show for it…just an awful deer to turn into coyote and magpie food. I had decided earlier to not shoot this deer unless I got it in bow range, but he looked taller and better thru the scope than he did on camera, and I broke down and shot him. I think I’m being punished for not sticking to my plans to let him grow. Arrrgh this sucks! I searched every inch of thick stuff he might have piled up in for nearly a mile…nada.

Anyhoo….I still owe you a bottle of good whiskey, because your prediction was money and that is 3 years in a row now.