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Thread: Rubberhead's 2022 White-tail Buck Activity Predictor...

  1. #1
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    Default Rubberhead's 2022 White-tail Buck Activity Predictor...

    I know y'all have been waiting on this so you can schedule vacation so I ran it early. This year I added a module to predict when processors will be full. I must say, though, that it's an odd year where the moon phase doesn't line up well with the calendar peak of the rut (October 16th). I didn't do anything to try to fix that, though. This is just a raw output of the same model I used last year other than the new processor predictor that says the processors will quit taking deer on October 21, 2022 for about two weeks. This does not work for Game Zone 1 so sorry guys from Greenville, Spartanburg and half of Oconee...
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    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  2. #2
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    i like that you referred to yourself in the third person. That's all I got.
    - "My dad used to tell me that nothing good happens when you take your AR to an out of town riot. Or maybe it was that nothing good happens after 1:00 in the morning. I can't remember any more." - Wob

    - "Any thought of romance went out the window when I saw the Ohio plates" - Squirrel Master

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Black Bart View Post
    i like that you referred to yourself in the third person. That's all I got.
    We're used to your sarcasm by now.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

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    Cool. Thanks for posting, RH.

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    I always find this interesting. Thanks for posting again this year.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  6. #6
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    I'm sure a lot of people on this forum will find the processor feature extremely helpful.

  7. #7
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    Thanks for the early info, RH. I didn't get to hunt at all last year due to a shoulder injury, so this may give me a chance to plan ahead and catch up.

    If I'm reading this right, you're (the moon?) projecting an early rut? Isn't it normally expected around the first week of November?
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    "Keep your powder dry, Boys!"
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  8. #8
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    Confirms my long term belief that Nov 4 is going to be as close to the mark as one can predict for central SC.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WoodieSC View Post
    Thanks for the early info, RH. I didn't get to hunt at all last year due to a shoulder injury, so this may give me a chance to plan ahead and catch up.

    If I'm reading this right, you're (the moon?) projecting an early rut? Isn't it normally expected around the first week of November?
    SC usually peaks around mid October.

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    When is Alabama's?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Glenn View Post
    SC usually peaks around mid October.
    My mind is probably rusty. I used to try to keep from October 20th through November 10 as open as possible and get out whenever I could.

    It looks like this year it will be the month of October, the first half of which is normally too warm for getting your deer down to below 40-45 degrees in two hours.
    .
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    "Keep your powder dry, Boys!"
    ~ George Washington

    "If I understood everything I said I'd be a genius." ~ 'Unknown'

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    Quote Originally Posted by JABIII View Post
    When is Alabama's?
    Early to mid January.

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    Which part of Alabama? Those heathen’s DT’d their herd from 47 states and 3 foreign countries.

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    Below tn river. North of the tn river it’s like the Midwest; early, mid November.

    State full of weirdos.

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    Thanks, your predictions are spot on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WoodieSC View Post
    If I'm reading this right, you're (the moon?) projecting an early rut? Isn't it normally expected around the first week of November?
    I honestly don't know what "the rut" means. I know what people tell me it is but there's a wide range of definitions. I called it a whitetail activity predictor but I might start calling it a Big Buck Vulnerability Predictor since that's all I'm trying to forecast - when big bucks are most vulnerable to being killed - ie when they are most likely to make mistakes that they don't usually make.

    I am 100% convinced that most of these mistakes are related to breeding but the mistakes are driven by different behaviors during the breeding cycle not just when they are actively mating with does.

    Early on, I think it's what I call "doe-ventory" where big bucks that I've had on camera since August start disappearing and unfamiliar bucks start showing up. I really think this is when bucks leave their non-breeding home range and try to "map out" where pockets of does are living. This is the big peak in early October. I don't know but I think there is almost no actual breeding taking place then. It's just big bucks "on walkabout" in places that are unfamiliar to them. Their vulnerability comes from 1) the distances they're traveling and 2) their not being totally familiar with territory. I suspect they return to their home range when does starting going into heat and travel out again once they've bred the local does. Of course, there's a lot of buck to buck interaction going on then too that can cause them to make mistakes.

    I've never studied other people opinions on what drives whitetail activity mostly because I wasn't that interested until recently. But, now, I'm avoiding it because I don't want to have other people's paradigms work their way into my thought process. Woops, sorry, I got long-winded.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  18. #18
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    Great synopsis there, Rubberhead. No apologies needed.
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    "Keep your powder dry, Boys!"
    ~ George Washington

    "If I understood everything I said I'd be a genius." ~ 'Unknown'

  19. #19
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    Would you say that the rut was on whenever this pic was taken? October 20





    0482FA67-33D7-4B4C-AA83-BB3C791D243E.jpeg
    Last edited by StrutnBPS; 04-30-2022 at 09:02 AM.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by StrutnBPS View Post
    Would you say that the rut was on whenever this pic was taken? October 20
    Like I said, I really don't know what "the rut" means. Besides, the model is not built to pattern deer over a corn pile.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

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