Timber Stumpage prices in the SE US are on the rise

[Duck Nitz]

quote "New mills coming online are bringing additional competition for timber resources. The 20 yr. slump in stumpage appears to be coming to an end. Increased competition and Global demand are at work in the Marketplace."

Anyone concur?

[centurian]

Very true. They are cutting like crazing in Chester and Fairfield Counties. All the clear cuts that were replanted in the late 90's and early 2000's are beginning to be harvested at an increasing rate. Pulp wood and log prices are both up.

[Duck Nitz]

Very true. They are cutting like crazing in Chester and Fairfield Counties. All the clear cuts that were replanted in the late 90's and early 2000's are beginning to be harvested at an increasing rate. Pulp wood and log prices are both up.

Thank ye'

[dubs]

Ha, things have a LONG way to go to get back to what the industry refers to as 'pre-recession norms'....

Here is the long term trend of ST prices since 2000. Are things getting better? I think so, but the WSJ utilizing cyclical and un-predictable factors like weather to say that things are on the significant uptick is very misleading (which the article does). The article also does not address the trucking issues at all which IMO is going to be the major limiting factor in all of this in the near future.

Funny thing is I bet if you ask suit wearing TIMO managers, consultants, loggers and mill procurement guys your question you will get four completely different answers.

Lumber Rebound Awakens Timber Market From Long Slumber - WSJ.jpg

[centurian]

Trucking is going to be a problem for all commodity goods as well as finished goods for a long time in the future. It was already a problem pre-pandemic but is now at a crisis level.

[Big Time]

When i was a baby forester in 2000 we traded by the bdft and cord which has given over to weight scales and tons. Equivalents from that era were hardwood pulpwood was $1/ton, pine was $5-7/ton, there was a chip-n-saw market at $25/ton, a super pulpwood market at $10/ton, logs were sold on the bdft per tree average and could be $50/ton and poles were $75/ton. Now there are pulpwood and log separations of 10' butt to a 7" top and about $5/ton difference in price, maybe. Like most logs are $23/ton regardless of bdft per tree average.

Regardless of timber prices if all these people keep moving to SC and clearing land to build cheap houses with leaky rooves, the timber market will move to other states. It is hard to manage 5 and 10 acre woodlots.

[centurian]

They clear cut about 1200 acre on one side of us 2 years ago, cut 650 acre and another 1200 acre across the road last year. .cut 250 acre on another side last month. Clear cutting 350 acre on our lease and 2nd thinning the rest. Hauling 25-30 loads a week. Massive clear cuts down toward Winnsboro been cut for a year or more. That is not much in the terms of timber production but a lot in our area in a short time. Hopefully they will replant and keep the land in timber production rather than housing.

[TheVisorGuy]

Definitely picked up in Chester and Fairfield county for sure

[Timsmith]

I’m building logging roads as we speak. Cha-Cling

[centurian]

Hopefully you get to fix them again after they are finished. They have destroyed our road system already, before the rain

[TheVisorGuy]

The joys of leasing timber land

[smitch320]

Trucking is going to be a problem for all commodity goods as well as finished goods for a long time in the future. It was already a problem pre-pandemic but is now at a crisis level.

It’s at crisis level in the woods.

[scduckcmdr]

We’re in the middle of winter and GP in Prosperity cut ply off at noon on Wedenesday, reduced order today, and aren’t buying CNS or Ply tomorrow. The market is good for now but the spring/summer will see another lull. Mills are already backing off on pricing for summer time tracts.

[GBelly]

“If trees are the answer, what is the question?”

Gene Simmons

[centurian]

The joys of leasing timber land

I don’t consider it a downside, just another chapter. When I got this lease it was completely clear cut, now soon to be again. That is the way timber works. I never thought I would live to see that so things change, good or bad. Just hope they don’t sell it out from under us. If they do things will change further. Have had nothing and had several good leases too.

[bdunc]

“If trees are the answer, what is the question?”

Gene Simmons

I’ve heard that before.

[TheVisorGuy]

I don’t consider it a downside, just another chapter. When I got this lease it was completely clear cut, now soon to be again. That is the way timber works. I never thought I would live to see that so things change, good or bad. Just hope they don’t sell it out from under us. If they do things will change further. Have had nothing and had several good leases too.

I'm with you. I like the change. The road situation is definitely a downside

[cuforester]

Mill prices may be going up but with fuel cost, insurance, and having to pay help more to get them to stay the land owner ain’t seeing much of it I bet. I would guess avg prices for CNS and logs are up about 8$ ton over the last 6 months

[ADP]

Markets are booming right now. At some point it will fall but at the moment I can't move it fast enough.

[centurian]

I'm with you. I like the change. The road situation is definitely a downside

They use our roads to haul when they cut several neighboring properties. Who ever is using them usually is the one repairing them. So far it hasw worked out pretty good for us as they maintain the road and fix them as good or better than they were to start with. It is free road maintenance for us. They put in the water bars and run offs too. Usually just a temporary inconvenience.