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Thread: Severe weather threat

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Wateree, South Carolina
    Posts
    48,812

    Default Severe weather threat



    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Tue Dec 28 2021

    Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...

    ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and hail are possible during the afternoon and evening.

    ...Synopsis... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from Mexico into the Northeast, with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains during the day. This wave will cross the MS River during the evening, with the bulk of the height falls north of the OH River. However, 60-70 kt midlevel wind speeds will exist as far south as the TN Valley.

    At the surface, low pressure will develop near the ArkLaTex, with a trough extending eastward into TN and KY during the evening. A front will remain nearly stationary, from central AR into northern TN. Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain mid to upper 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary, with 70s F across LA, southern MS and AL. Southwest 850 mb winds will increase to 40 kt, enhancing lift from warm advection during the afternoon and evening across MS, AL and TN. A dryline will also extend from the ArkLaTex southwestward toward I-35 in TX, moving slowly east during the evening.

    ...Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley... Storms are expected to initiate during the afternoon from southern AR into northern MS related to the warm advection regime. SRH is forecast to increase to around 200 m2/s2, with effective deep-layer shear up to 60 kt. This will favor supercells moving east/northeast, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Long hodographs may also favor hail. Convection is expected to increase in coverage as it interacts with the stationary front, with mixed storm modes possibly developing with damaging winds also possible. The severe risk may extend east toward the southern Appalachians as the veered 850 mb winds aid moisture advection. While instability will be weaker farther east into GA and the western Carolinas, strong shear may yield an isolated tornado or damaging gusts.

    Elsewhere, it is more uncertain how much convection will occur across the warm sector including much of AL and western GA, but any areas of storms that can develop there overnight could pose a severe risk.

    ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/29/2021

    CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

    NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Rock Hill SC
    Posts
    9,154

    Default

    Tornados again possibly but hope not

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Gobbler's Knob, GA/ Bamberg,SC
    Posts
    21,442

    Default

    It's dang sure raining here at Gobbler's Knob, GA.
    F**K Cancer

    Just Damn.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Gobbler's Knob, GA/ Bamberg,SC
    Posts
    21,442

    Default

    Gah dang. It rocked and rolled here overnight. Heavy rain and heard that freight train acomin ... Damage to the North of me , supposedly a Microburst or Tornado. Wild weather night.
    F**K Cancer

    Just Damn.

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