Tuffy

[JABIII]

Would have liked this...

https://www.fws.gov/migratorybirds/p...ayDatabook.pdf

https://www.fws.gov/migratorybirds/p...ayDatabook.pdf

https://www.fws.gov/migratorybirds/p...and2020-21.pdf

[willyworm]

Indeed. He loved sifting thru "the data".

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[DUCKMAN]

A giant source of information was lost with his passing! He is missed!

[Rubberhead*]

Here's a couple of quickies...

[tman]

I wonder if released mallards are included in these numbers?

[Rubberhead*]

I wonder if released mallards are included in these numbers?

I don't know but you bring up the saddest of the many sad SC duck trends...

[ccleroy]

Good job bringing his name back up, he is indeed missed.

[jws]

Number of active hunters is an interesting section. SC grew by 8,000 while every other state decreased or stayed very close to the same number.

[Catdaddy]

I wonder if released mallards are included in these numbers?

Yes, according to the DNA research. Now whether they were Wilicki released mallards or North East released mallards is an unknown.

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[centurian]

I don't know but you bring up the saddest of the many sad SC duck trends...

Damn that is bad. BUT you are not going to have migrating Mallards in the southeast without weather in the heartland. As long as there is open water in the central flyway it is going to be poor hunting in SC. I was hoping for an ice age type event every so often but finally gave up.

[Rubberhead*]

Damn that is bad. BUT you are not going to have migrating Mallards in the southeast without weather in the heartland. As long as there is open water in the central flyway it is going to be poor hunting in SC. I was hoping for an ice age type event every so often but finally gave up.

Original Post -> But when I run a linear regression of the Atlantic Flyway harvest with the Central Flyway harvest as the independent variable (R²=50.8%) the correlation coefficient is a positive .400 meaning if the Central Flyway has a good season then so does the Atlantic. I get similar results, but not as strongly correlated, if I run SC against the Central Flyway.

Sorry, those numbers were using only the mallard data. Using all species, there is basically no correlation between the Central Flyway and SC (m=0.004).

[3 1/2" MAGUM]

It would be interesting to see # of Duck Hunters per flyway overlayed on that Duck Harvest graph.

[Rubberhead*]

It would be interesting to see # of Duck Hunters per flyway overlayed on that Duck Harvest graph.

They have that data but I didn't include it because it's all over the board and the data swings make it look like a mess. Whatever tool they use for estimating the number of hunters is suspect in my book.

[MC]

Check out the decrease in SC mallard harvest compared to the decreases in Pennsylvania and New York.

[centurian]

The lower southeastern states are different from the Mid and northern Atlantic flyway states. Our migrants come from different areas.

[Catdaddy]

The lower southeastern states are different from the Mid and northern Atlantic flyway states. Our migrants come from different areas.

I believe 70% come from the great lakes area.

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[centurian]

My bands are all from Wisconsin and Michigan

[Catdaddy]

My bands are all from Wisconsin and Michigan

.Screenshot_20220113-144036.jpg

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[JABIII]

North East released mallards is an unknown.

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We haven't begun to determine if the "science" behind those theories can even be trusted, much less accurate...

[centurian]

Most of the bands we collected in the Piedmont were banded at Horicon NWR in Wisconsin and a few from AR. The great lakes are surely a big factor but it doesnt help f they dont freeze over

I like these graphs pretty interesting.