Wed/Thurs storm
Looks like a nice one potentially brewing. West of us is looking extremely problematic with tornadoes and whatnot...
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is expected from southern Virginia southward into
Florida, and westward into portions of eastern Kentucky/eastern
Tennessee Thursday. Along with potential for hail and locally
damaging winds, several tornadoes -- a couple of them possibly
strong -- are anticipated.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous upper low initially progged over eastern portions of the
Ozarks, is expected to continue steady eastward progression through
the period, weakening gradually as it crosses the Appalachians and
reaches Virginia/the Carolinas by the end of the period. In the
wake of this feature, ridging will expand to encompass much of the
country, as an eastern Pacific trough nears the Pacific Northwest
Coast late.
As the upper system advances, a surface low just ahead of cyclone
aloft will likewise progress eastward, crossing the mountains during
the evening before redeveloping offshore through the end of the
period. A trailing cold front will cross the southern Appalachians
through the first half of the period, before moving offshore
overnight. A second day of fairly widespread -- and possibly
locally substantial -- severe risk is anticipated.
...Parts of the Mid and Southern Atlantic Coast states, and westward
into eastern parts of KY/TN...
Showers and thunderstorms -- and some attendant severe weather risk
-- will be ongoing Thursday morning, particularly over the southern
Appalachians region. With associated clouds streaming northeastward
across the middle and southern Atlantic Coast states, hindered
heating -- and thus tempered diurnal destabilization -- is expected.
Still, with northward advection of higher theta-e air east of the
mountains ahead of the advancing surface system causing a rapid
retreat of the remnant damming front, sufficient CAPE should evolve
to support vigorous storms -- with intensity of the updrafts aided
by strongly veering/increasing flow with height.
Storms should increase through midday west of the mountains across
parts of eastern Kentucky/eastern Tennessee ahead of the synoptic
system. Relatively low-topped storms -- and local risk for
all-hazards severe weather -- will likely evolve.
Meanwhile, storms are expected to spread across Georgia and into the
Carolinas ahead of the advancing cold front, along with some
pre-frontal cellular development within a zone of strong warm
advection east of the mountains. Given ample instability and a very
favorably sheared environment, relatively widespread and locally
substantial severe weather potential is indicated -- including risk
for a few strong tornadoes. Potential is expected to expand
northward toward/into southern Virginia with time as the front
retreats into the evening, before convection begins to end from west
to east as the cold front moves toward -- and eventually off -- the
Atlantic Coast.
..Goss.. 03/16/2021
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
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Originally Posted by Jozie & Me
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