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Thread: Rubberhead's 2020 WTBD Activity Almanac...

  1. #1
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    Default Rubberhead's 2020 WTBD Activity Almanac...

    I've always liked forecast modeling. I can't say this is the most complex model I've ever built but it is based on both the moon phase and the calendar day. Moon phase is the dominate parameter because I simply could not find, in any of my records, photos or internet ramblings, any instance of killing a buck, missing a buck, losing a buck or passing up a shootable buck when the moon was waning between 72% full and 32% full or waxing between 32% and 92% full. I even "backcasted" the forecast by testing data that I found after I completed the modeling. 100% of the backcasted data fit within the model. Even with all that said there is no way that I had enough data to be considered even close to "statistically significant".

    Of course "life" can't be quantified perfectly but I believe this enough that I am planning to schedule any vacation days around the best times to hunt. I will hunt on a zero star day only if there is literally nothing else going on. The model predicted best days are October 16-18, 2020. Luckily for weekend hunters that's a Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

    I share this only as a challenge to the deer hunters on SCDUCKS to prove me right or prove me wrong - either way you get a deer hunt and hopefully, a deer, out of the deal. And, the only promise I will make is that this forecast is going to be better than the WHO's or CDC's COVID-19 models. Note to that only rack bucks were included in the model so don't try to rub a zero star, corn pile doe in my face as proof the model doesn't work...haha.
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    Last edited by 2thDoc; 05-05-2022 at 08:15 AM.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  2. #2
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    This is awesome! Thanks RH! Challenge excepted. After watching the moon for the past few years I am a believer.
    "Think A Guy Like Me Worries About Percentages?" Tin Cup

    "Some get spiritual cause they see the light, and some cause they feel the heat" Ray Wylie Hubbard

    "P.S. I love turkeys. Mostly just hate those who hunt em." Glenn

  3. #3
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    This whole post has me excited about seeing deer. I enjoy trying to outfigure big bucks. Excellent model and I appreciate you sharing it with us.

  4. #4
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    Good stuff! Looking forward to participating and sharing my results.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  5. #5
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    How is this working for everyone so far this season? I hunted August 18th and Sep 6th and saw plenty of does and 2 small bucks.

  6. #6
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    Great work, RH!

    I would guess that this chart would be applicable pretty much anywhere in Whitetail country since time sunrise/sunset times would affect it, right?
    .
    Foothills Golden Retriever Rescue
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    "Keep your powder dry, Boys!"
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  7. #7
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    Great work and from memory of last year this looks spot on

  8. #8
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    You put a lot of effort into the things you post, this is awesome!

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bad Habit View Post
    How is this working for everyone so far this season? I hunted August 18th and Sep 6th and saw plenty of does and 2 small bucks.
    It ain't working for me...I'm still looking for #1...ha ha
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by WoodieSC View Post
    Great work, RH!

    I would guess that this chart would be applicable pretty much anywhere in Whitetail country since time sunrise/sunset times would affect it, right?
    It's really "tuned" to SC's latitude but the moon phase portion of it would probably work anywhere. I'm planning to give it heck late next week so we'll see if I can put the first one in the book.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  11. #11
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    From several years of camera pictures, October 15 has been the best day for big bucks seen during daylight hours at my place due to the rut. With the moon lining up to accentuate that weekend, I think I'm going to count on being in a tree all weekend.

  12. #12
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    Sticky this thread

  13. #13
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    Interesting work. Kudos to you for compiling this. Interested to see your results!

  14. #14
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    This chart kinda coincides with my personal best days of Oct. 12th thru Oct. 19th, with Oct. 13th and Oct. 19th being my best days and Oct. 13th being my favorite day. For south Carolina hunting only.

    For the mid-west my best days are in November.

    I'll defiantly participate and share my results.

  15. #15
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    Okay - between now and next weekend I'm going to work hard to self-fulfill my own prophesy.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  16. #16
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    I pulled my camera card ( all my cameras send pics to the home camera posted outside my house) lunchtime today- bucks on every camera in daylight showing up around 6 and staying until around 8 last 2 mornings, then again around 6:30 until dark. That was yesterday and this morning- nothing but does and spikes for the week prior- and middle of the night bucks.

  17. #17
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    slow evening, never heard a shot, passed up a young 8

  18. #18
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    I've seen a lot of activity Monday and Tuesday evening but no shooter bucks. Sat this morning for a couple of hours but never saw anything.
    Ephesians 2 : 8-9



    Charles Barkley: Nobody doesn't like meat.

  19. #19
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    Guy on our club killed a nice 8 yesterday evening and Cordrays had a bunch checked in- I filled feeders using a 4 wheeler on half our club today between 11 and 2 and saw deer everywhere I went

  20. #20
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    Sitting in southern Spartanburg county again this evening. Watched young 6 and 8 points rub trees and eat privet in a creek bottom yesterday afternoon. Seen movement every afternoon sit this week. Nothing this morning.
    Last edited by joshua2; 09-19-2020 at 04:32 PM.
    "George Washington didn't use his freedom of speech to defeat the British, he shot them."

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