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SPC AC 170734
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely Sunday across the Gulf Coast states. The
greatest threat appears to be from Louisiana to Georgia, with
significant severe storms expected including tornadoes and damaging
winds. Large hail is likely as well.
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough with 60-70 kt midlevel speed max
will move from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley during
the day, and will reach the East Coast by 12Z Monday. Preceding this
trough, a broad area of 50 kt midlevel westerlies will exist across
the entire southeastern CONUS.
At the surface, mid-to-upper 60s F dewpoints will surge north behind
a warm front, located roughly from southern AR to central MS, AL and
GA by 18-21Z. Meanwhile, a dryline will develop eastward across TX,
with a weak surface low near the ArkLaMiss by 00Z. As the shortwave
trough approaches, southwesterly 850 mb winds will increase to 30-40
kt during the day, and over 50 kt after 00Z. This will result in an
expansive area of favorable moisture, instability and shear, with
numerous severe storms possible through the period.
...East TX to GA and SC...
Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over northern MS and AL
related to warm advection. These storms may pose a hail threat
initially. With time, these storms may transition to surface based,
with an evolving threat of damaging winds or tornadoes from AL into
GA coincident with a 300+ m2/s2 ESRH max.
To the west, other storms are likely early to midday over eastern
TX, but storm mode is uncertain. Given the increasing lift,
especially after 18Z across LA and MS, an MCS will be possible. In
addition, supercells, possibly tornadic, may form ahead of any MCS
over LA and MS. The general model trend is for upscale growth, and
this could be a combination of storm modes. At any rate, tornadoes,
damaging wind, and large hail will all be possible.
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