... like a boulder rolling downhill

[Palmetto Duck]

Heard 100k- 200k deaths best case. How the hell do we get from 3k to 100k when this thing is supposed to peak in the next week or so.

YES. FINALLY someone’s doing the math. In WSJ article I read it had same numbers 100k-240k deaths. First of all that’s a GIANT range. Lower end is less than half upper end. However approx 4000 deaths now. University of WA advises 2100ish deaths a day at peak in 2weeks but then only 84000 deaths by August, 120 days away...? So which is it? Obviously peak deaths per day doesn’t last extended period but we’d need 80 days at 2000 dead a day just to get to midpoint of death range they give us. 80 days is majority of time between now and Aug which University if Wa says 84000 deaths by then. So if peak is in 2weeks with 2000 deaths a day, and we only project 84000 by August when do the next 20000-160000 deaths occur? Trump said next 3 weeks to be worst. NY, NY city especially, is pushed beyond capacity right now. But I’m not hearing same things from other major population density areas. What am I missing?

[TheVisorGuy]

Math definitely doesn't add up.

[Chasbeau1]

There are some very intelligent people that have spent their entire professional lives studying this subject and they can't predict with accuracy what is going to happen. As far as I know (and I could be wrong) none of those people frequent this forum.

[Gander]

These are the same people that predicted Hillary would win the 2016 election in a landslide. These predictions are absolutely worthless. It's gonna be what it's gonna be. The media just likes to scare the public with numbers. What's really important is what the medical community is doing to treat the virus. Not many stories about that. In fact the media jumped all over Trump when he said hydrocloriquin would be a game changer.

[Red Huck]

There are some very intelligent people those people frequent this forum. If you don't want to make the chart, stay away from sick people. Practice social distancing, keep your hands off your face, wash hands often, wear a bandana if you like just leave off the hat and sunglasses at banks. Or just stay home. Good luck and may his grace be with you .

[Bigtimber2]

South Korea is doing better than anybody else. They are all wearing masks. Doctors are now saying that they were originally wrong about wearing masks.. Doing so would greatly reduced the spread.

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We will have those for round two in the fall.


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[2thDoc]

South Korea is doing better than anybody else. They are all wearing masks. Doctors are now saying that they were originally wrong about wearing masks.. Doing so would greatly reduced the spread.

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this has been asked and answered a number of times by the panel. Masks have SOME psychological effect and keep you from sneezing on other people. that's about it.

Refrigeration trucks. Already a thing in NY.

“It’s just a cold bo.”


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your negativity is showing again. I have a nephew with the virus and zero symptoms.

I am glad you people did not go into public health, the fallacies on just this single thread...

agreed

We will have those for round two in the fall.


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and we will have antibodies and a vaccine.

you people really shouldn't read the wall street journal for this info.

[reeltight]

Glad your nephew is dong okay Toof.

[Bigtimber2]

These are the same people that predicted Hillary would win the 2016 election in a landslide. These predictions are absolutely worthless. It's gonna be what it's gonna be. The media just likes to scare the public with numbers. What's really important is what the medical community is doing to treat the virus. Not many stories about that. In fact the media jumped all over Trump when he said hydrocloriquin would be a game changer.

Nonsense. Making projections to aid in making decisions is what they should be doing. Armchairing is easy. “Its gonna be what gonna be” based on how well people respond and stay away from others. That why people being begged to stay home.

The media only reported the number the epidemiologist provided them Epidemiologist did predict Hillary was going win.

Here is how we could get close to 100k, the 200k is high end and people get restless believing it is a conspiracy.

Everything is not a media conspiracy.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections


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[Bigtimber2]

this has been asked and answered a number of times by the panel. Masks have SOME psychological effect and keep you from sneezing on other people. that's about it..

I think Cat was probably listening to Dr Fauci in the last presser not the WSJ.


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...navirus-157476

and we will have antibodies and a vaccine.

you people really shouldn't read the wall street journal for this info.

Hopefully the antibodies in plasma pans out along with the Hydroxyquinolone.

A vaccine by Fall is very optimistic, imo.


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[led0321]

this has been asked and answered a number of times by the panel. Masks have SOME psychological effect and keep you from sneezing on other people. that's about it.



your negativity is showing again. I have a nephew with the virus and zero symptoms.



agreed


and we will have antibodies and a vaccine.

you people really shouldn't read the wall street journal for this info.

Not negative.

I have just been honest and 100% right.

No big deal.


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[2thDoc]

no, you havent been 100% right but I wont ruin it for you. You are just trying to predict an apocolypse and that's just not gonna happen.

we can circle up when this is behind us. Hopefully you wont have gone crazy by then.

[led0321]

no, you havent been 100% right but I wont ruin it for you. You are just trying to predict an apocolypse and that's just not gonna happen.

we can circle up when this is behind us. Hopefully you wont have gone crazy by then.

Ha. I won’t bump all of your posts where you look absolutely stupid as fuck. I probably should...but I won’t.

Feel free to look for one of mine to bump. It will give you something to do while realizing “you don’t do this for a living”

Here is a pro tip though...give yourself a courtesy lick because going in raw hurts. So I hear...


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[2thDoc]

wow. that's a bit harsh.

go perusing my comments on the virus and see what you can come up with....

I've been an advocate for stats, not hysteria.

[Catdaddy]

this has been asked and answered a number of times by the panel. Masks have SOME psychological effect and keep you from sneezing on other people. that's about it.

This was from another infectious disease specialist, not Fauci. He said he was wrong to suggest that we didn't need masks originally(like he did 3 weeks ago). He also mentioned the psychological effect but also said they realize it's a lot more contagious than fist thought. When a patient leaves a hospital room, they seal the room for 3-5 hours before going in and disinfecting it. The virus is staying aloft and active for 3-4 hours.

[Gander]

I'm in agreement with Toof for the most part. I'm still lost on this whole discussion about masks not being beneficial. If they weren't beneficial to wear for well people, then why do doctors wear them? I would think any barrier between people spewing bodily fluids would benefit the person wearing them that are sick as well as people who aren't. Sort of a double barrier between people.

I don't have any so it doesn't matter for me. But I have used one while doing yardwork and it helped with my allergies.

[Bigtimber2]

Not to add the hysteria even though I am not sure FEMA sending refrigerated trucks and ambulance and mask is adding to hysteria. But “health experts” are crediting South Korea proper use of mask as part of their success. Something the learn from SARS.


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[SCDAWG]

I have seen them “sterilizing” the make. I wonder how? They said VHP or vaporized hydrogen peroxide. I have seen this used in an isolator, but the cycle was validated with biological indicators

[Catdaddy]

Math definitely doesn't add up.

They are using Chinese arithmetic.

[SCDAWG]

That’s hard

Seriously I believe everything is politically motivated in some form or fashion. I’ll give you 2 trillion reasons why.

If the number is lower than estimates, will it be because of Big Brother intervention? The shelter in place mandates?