SC scientist predicts explosion in coronavirus cases as SC braces for more patients

[Bigtimber2]

Looks like it's spreading faster here .


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6 times that last number to over 60k confirmed cases in 12 days. I realize more tested.


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[Carolina Counsel]

There is not enough data available yet to say ‘it is much more deadly than the flu.’

I would say a more accurate statement is ‘it is much more infectious than the flu.’ Because of our lack of immunity, if you come in close contact with the virus, there is a good chance you will get it. The ‘higher’ death rates are due to the rate which people are being infected. Everyone infected all at once = overloaded healthcare facilities = decreased ability to care = higher mortality rate. That doesn’t make the virus itself more deadly though.

I think you're partially correct, but mostly incorrect. I do think that there is an increased mortality rate due to overloaded healthcare facilities (mostly in Europe), but I don't think that's the singular or even primary reason for the mortality rate being higher than the flu. Will it end up being ten times higher- I doubt it. However, it appears to take out healthy people more commonly than the flu does. Yes, the flu occasionally kills a health person (I think it's actually usually a young person), but not like Covid-19 does. Several folks have mentioned that they've talked to their ER buddy or so and so in the healthcare field . . . so I'll add my $.02. Most of my work is in healthcare. I have been in touch with a lot of my contacts over the past two weeks. I have yet to speak with anyone on the front line who claims this is not a big deal- from epidemiologist to infectious disease to emergency department docs- they have all been consistent- this is bad stuff.

[Carolina Counsel]

flu / pneumonia a year is pretty high right?

CDC shit their pants because they didn't know about it, and hence a knee jerk reaction.

What fish said was kind of what I was getting at the other day. There is a lot of people that have this, but we are running around 1.2 to 1.4 mortality rate. If the real number of positives were known, it would show an even lower number.

This was over blown. Like the Lt. Governor of Texas said last night. He is 67 and in the "high risk" category. He said this isn't worth wreaking the economy and costing future generations trillions in debt.

Hell, we all know stimulus goes to the "selected". There may not be jobs for people to come back to.

While I think this disease is bad stuff, I agree with you. I don't think the cost-benefit analysis and estimate mortality rate justifies the national response and ruining lives and the economy.

[Bigtimber2]

What should have been the response?

You mean do no closing?

I do not think any logical leader given the data would not have not came to the collusion for a shutdown. I think if nothing was done the healthcare would have collapsed and more have would been worse in the economy. It is armchair but as now they are not wrong.


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[everlast]

In order to be tested, a patient must meet specific criteria. Testing is only performed to rule out other causes of respiratory distress in admitted patients.

The number of infected is WAY past the number of reported infected. WAY. .

[Grebe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/C4Dispatc...03403619172359

[wskinner]

What should have been the response?

You mean do no closing?

I do not think any logical leader given the data would not have not came to the collusion for a shutdown. I think if nothing was done the healthcare would have collapsed and more have would been worse in the economy. It is armchair but as now they are not wrong.


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You take the population that’s at risk for dying from it (elderly, those with underlying health conditions, plus those who need to care for them) and you have them quarantine themselves. No need for the entire country to shut down and act like the Walking Dead virus is outside.

[Bigtimber2]

So that would have worked and not wrecked the healthcare system? You sure?


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[wskinner]

Define wrecked.

[Bigtimber2]

More ICU patients than ICU beds, more patients needing ventilator than available, lack of PPE for staff and lack of staff.


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[scdiver]

You take the population that’s at risk for dying from it (elderly, those with underlying health conditions, plus those who need to care for them) and you have them quarantine themselves. No need for the entire country to shut down and act like the Walking Dead virus is outside.

Pretty much what we are going to have happen now since nobody followed the guidelines for social distancing/isolation.

Hopefully what was done was effective enough to prevent a pile of people dying but I'm afraid it's coming.

[Carolina Counsel]

More ICU patients than ICU beds, more patients needing ventilator than available, lack of PPE for staff and lack of staff.


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Not sure that can be avoided either way. I think a risk-benefit analysis would have to take into consideration the mortality rate for healthy patients, including those that would have survived had they had full access to unfettered healthcare. Theoretically, are thousands of healthy middle-aged folks dying who could have otherwise been saved worth avoiding tanking the economy? Maybe. Maybe not. What's the number? 1,000? 10,000? 100,000? Who knows. What I do know is that we're tanking the economy and people are still going to die.

[scdiver]

Fatalistic approach, everybody is going to be exposed and you have to pray you or your loved aren't the ones who die.

Already not the case for our family.

[Palmetto Bug]

Fatalistic approach, everybody is going to be exposed and you have to pray you or your loved aren't the ones who die.

There is a timing issue to go with that though. If everyone gets sick at once, we run out of ventilators and hospitals have to do triage. More people die than necessary. If we quarantine and spread out the infections, we may not overwhelm the available hospital beds and staff.

[Bigtimber2]

Yep, and disrupt the economy the least amount.


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[Highstrung]

Fatalistic approach, everybody is going to be exposed and you have to pray you or your loved aren't the ones who die.

Already not the case for our family.

I'm sorry

[SCDAWG]

I bet the economic "curve" will be more drastic than the virus. We are just witnessing the stock market. Stimulus or not, this is gonna be felt for awhile.

The ripple effect will be nasty.

Yes there are people that are healthy getting it, but what is the mortality rate of healthy people getting it? We will never know. We all agree that there is a lot more that has / had it than is being reported / known.
Now we have lost roughly 40% in the stock market, getting ready to be 1.2+ trillion deeper in debt, and the impact to main street hasn't been felt yet.

[Bigtimber2]

The do nothing approach. Would have likely much harder. Healthcare overwhelmed so a mandatory lockdown to try and catch up. Way more fear than now. It is a pandemic that will not be cheap to the global or the US.

If SC can maintain this projection based on capacity we should be doing okay.


https://www.scdhec.gov/news-releases...cases-covid-19


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[ecu1984]

Define wrecked.

Straight from the dictionary

[Interceptor4]

This virus has been in America for months so those numbers don't mean anything.