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Thread: SC scientist predicts explosion in coronavirus cases as SC braces for more patients

  1. #21
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    Mortality rate in the US is right at 1.4% as of today. The Flu runs around 1%. The rate is running higher in countries like Italy because they have a very large population of elderly. In fact, the highest in all of Europe. Coupled with the fact they don't treat anyone over 80. Seems cold but their system is overwhelmed and they prioritized the younger folks that have a higher survival rate.

    We are doing fine compared to other lethal things such as heart disease that kills 500k per year.

    This isn't gonna go away anytime soon. Just like all viruses, it spreads, a bunch of people get it and build up an immunity. Then it starts to settle down and a certain section of the population can't get it again and pass the virus. Areas will have flare ups. Then next year it will mutate and start cycling again.

  2. #22
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    I didn't say it was a hoax, it's just a virus like many others we have seen in the past. H1N1, SARS, etc. It happens and it sucks but its something we have to deal with. The 24/7 news stations aren't helping. They are peddling fear. Be smart. Wash your hands, stay away from people and you will reduce your chances of catching it and passing on to someone else who may not be able to fight it off.

    The doom and gloom bullshit needs to stop.

  3. #23
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    All I know is I'm headed to TX on 4/3. By God.
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  4. #24
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    I found two articles in the last five minutes that explain how influenza is more deadly than the wuhan flu. If you look, you'll find at least as many that say otherwise. You can't trust a damn thing off the internet.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...se/4564133002/

    https://www.businessinsider.com/wuha...han-flu-2020-1

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by nitro5x6's View Post
    All I know is I'm headed to TX on 4/3. By God.
    Well, yes. Agriculture is deemed essential and you really need to closely look at those new areas that might add to production.

  6. #26
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    Default SC scientist predicts explosion in coronavirus cases as SC braces for more patients

    Quote Originally Posted by Gander View Post
    Mortality rate in the US is right at 1.4% as of today. The Flu runs around 1%. .
    Here is source of your confusion and it is vast. The Flu Mortality rate is only 0.1%. Around 1 in 1000 Americans will die with the flu, 14 will die testing positive for Covid 19.

    Granted that number will go down with testing but still much higher as much 10 times more deadly. It will be months before a true mortality can be calculated.

    You also need to understand that healthcare have been vaccinated for the flu and does need to leave healthcare for 2 weeks like many treating Covid 19.

    You attempting to compare a control slow burning to an explosion. We can handle it but need it going to take good decisions and not poor comparison to something totally unrelated.


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    Last edited by Bigtimber2; 03-25-2020 at 10:19 AM.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by JABIII View Post
    Well, yes. Agriculture is deemed essential and you really need to closely look at those new areas that might add to production.
    I have my letter stating exactly that from our Corporate office. " Do NOT stop, hassle, question or otherwise delay the bearer of this letter as he bravely serves the world's needs during this time of desperation "

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  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gander View Post
    Mortality rate in the US is right at 1.4% as of today. The Flu runs around 1%.
    I don't think that your flu stat is accurate.
    Carolina Counsel

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigtimber2 View Post
    Here is source of your confusion and it is vast. The Flu Mortality rate is only 0.1%. Around 1 in 1000 Americans will die with the flu, 14 will die testing positive for Covid 19.
    The problem with the first comment, not mitigated by the second, is that you've made an argument, at least twice so far, about averaging the data. There is no where near enough data for a confidence interval.

    If a nurse at MUSC develops a temperature (or other single or combined symptoms), they will not test them. They will have that employee stay home for 14 days. In order to be tested, a patient must meet specific criteria. Testing is only performed to rule out other causes of respiratory distress in admitted patients.

    The number of infected is WAY past the number of reported infected. WAY. The only data we have to go by is reported deaths and reported infections and half that data is inaccurate. The only real data is number of deaths. Understanding the real mortality rate could take years because we're not testing on a large scale. All the math is based on something being held constant. Nothing is constant.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fish View Post
    I found two articles in the last five minutes that explain how influenza is more deadly than the wuhan flu. If you look, you'll find at least as many that say otherwise. You can't trust a damn thing off the internet.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...se/4564133002/

    https://www.businessinsider.com/wuha...han-flu-2020-1


    Those were articles posted back in January when this was still mostly a China thing.

  11. #31
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    Default SC scientist predicts explosion in coronavirus cases as SC braces for more patients

    No question we cannot know what the mortality is, that has more frustrating to read than well “its only number of deaths, what is the big deal”.

    However, there is enough data to know that this virus is much more deadly than the flu and will strain healthcare in America.

    Without more testing the projections are difficult but that is to measure the severity not if it this will be severe. Our leaders are not always smart but this shutdown is not over hyped.


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    Last edited by Bigtimber2; 03-25-2020 at 11:10 AM.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigtimber2 View Post
    No question we cannot know what the mortality is, that has more frustrating to read than well “its only number of deaths, what is the big deal”.

    However, there is enough data to know that this virus is much more deadly than the flu and will strain healthcare in America.

    Without more testing the projections are difficult but that is to measure the severity not if it this will be severe. Our leaders are not always smart but this shutdown is not over hyped.


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    There is not enough data available yet to say ‘it is much more deadly than the flu.’

    I would say a more accurate statement is ‘it is much more infectious than the flu.’ Because of our lack of immunity, if you come in close contact with the virus, there is a good chance you will get it. The ‘higher’ death rates are due to the rate which people are being infected. Everyone infected all at once = overloaded healthcare facilities = decreased ability to care = higher mortality rate. That doesn’t make the virus itself more deadly though.
    Last edited by dubs; 03-25-2020 at 11:30 AM.
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  13. #33
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    Just an interesting stat for discussion purposes:

    1,037 people died in car wrecks in South Carolina and 36,560 in the US in 2018 (I'm assuming more in 2019), yet folks are still driving and riding in cars/trucks.

    https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality...state-by-state


    If the media covered these wrecks in the same dramatic fashion 24/7 like they have COVID, half the country would be petrified to get in a car.

  14. #34
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    If you only test severe cases the mortality rate will be artificially high. If the mortality rate stays high the country will continue to be undermined from within.
    Vegetarian: Native American for Piss Poor Hunter

  15. #35
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    flu / pneumonia a year is pretty high right?

    CDC shit their pants because they didn't know about it, and hence a knee jerk reaction.

    What fish said was kind of what I was getting at the other day. There is a lot of people that have this, but we are running around 1.2 to 1.4 mortality rate. If the real number of positives were known, it would show an even lower number.

    This was over blown. Like the Lt. Governor of Texas said last night. He is 67 and in the "high risk" category. He said this isn't worth wreaking the economy and costing future generations trillions in debt.

    Hell, we all know stimulus goes to the "selected". There may not be jobs for people to come back to.

  16. #36
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    Yall know its turkey season right? And I hear that the fish don't know anything about a virus either.


    Everyone of yall just need to back up from the computer, grab a Bible, a fishing rod and/or gun and head outside. Maybe leave the phone at the house, too.
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  17. #37
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    Default SC scientist predicts explosion in coronavirus cases as SC braces for more patients

    Quote Originally Posted by dubs View Post
    There is not enough data available yet to say ‘it is much more deadly than the flu.’
    .
    Yes, yes there are. Not hard data but there enough to see it is not only the number of cases but the severity also.


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    Last edited by Bigtimber2; 03-25-2020 at 12:45 PM.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by SCSportsman View Post
    Just an interesting stat for discussion purposes:

    1,037 people died in car wrecks in South Carolina and 36,560 in the US in 2018 (I'm assuming more in 2019), yet folks are still driving and riding in cars/trucks.

    https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality...state-by-state


    If the media covered these wrecks in the same dramatic fashion 24/7 like they have COVID, half the country would be petrified to get in a car.
    Over 365 days.


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  19. #39
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    Chuckles, I beat that chit in 7 days flat. Disclaimer I did miss the first 5 days of the second season, daumit.
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  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fish View Post
    The problem with the first comment, not mitigated by the second, is that you've made an argument, at least twice so far, about averaging the data. There is no where near enough data for a confidence interval.

    If a nurse at MUSC develops a temperature (or other single or combined symptoms), they will not test them. They will have that employee stay home for 14 days. In order to be tested, a patient must meet specific criteria. Testing is only performed to rule out other causes of respiratory distress in admitted patients.

    The number of infected is WAY past the number of reported infected. WAY. The only data we have to go by is reported deaths and reported infections and half that data is inaccurate. The only real data is number of deaths. Understanding the real mortality rate could take years because we're not testing on a large scale. All the math is based on something being held constant. Nothing is constant.
    Are we not testing so that the numbers appear larger?

    Or is there a shortage of test kits/labs to process?

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