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Thread: By the numbers

  1. #1
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    Default By the numbers

    Tuffy and I often talked numbers and in various odd places. You see, we never set up proper meetings per se. He would just call and say "Hey , where are you at". If I had the ability, I would drive to meet him wherever he was which was often somewhere in the National Forest. He truly loved the Francis Marion and those turkeys and was heartbroken by what was going on there, especially as to the Waterhorn unit.

    One day, about late May of 19, as we leaned against a gate in the back wood of the Francis Marion , he made mention that he was real tired and was probably leaving soon. I didn't prod but having heard his cough for several years I knew in my heart what he meant. Over the months to come that cough got worse and as you all know he recently move on to the Waterhorn above.

    Now, in one of our last conversations he told me I was going to have to really apply my self to data analysis, as of course factual and accurate numbers are what speaks to those at the top where wild game management is concerned. In return, I said I offer the paper and medium to deliver to those who will listen but that he held the pen and the numbers. I informed him that if he planned on leaving that he had better get me someone to fill his shoes, one of his students perhaps.

    Well, it seems as if Tuffy must have inquired at the gate before entering and left some instructions. Out of the blue CWS has gained a younger version of Tuffy that loves wild game and data analysis.

    I will be posting other data analysis in the future and in far more detailed areas centered around various issues / individual species et al. So, lets start with these two comparisons and God Bless you Tuffy and same to the creator of these graphs.

    First shows total waterfowl harvest on CAT 1s over the years.




    This one shows harvest vs shots fired over the years ( which can be construed as opportunity to kill). This one I feel is very important as so many have said that harvest can't be used to judge management success. Well, if you think about it, shots fired =opportunity to kill ( mostly or at least something to shoot at ) which can be a measure of successful management , and here ya go.


    Last edited by Strick9; 02-16-2020 at 01:42 PM.
    Genesis 9;2

  2. #2
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    A short list of things Tuffy loved:

    His boys
    His granddaughter
    Turkeys
    Data

    Glad to know CWS got connected with a youngster to carry on the legacy.

    Now who is this data being discussed/interpreted with in order to drive positive change regarding Cat1 usage/management?

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    Delta in a nutshell: Breeding grounds + small wetlands + big blocks of grass cover + predator removal + nesting structures + enough money to do the job= plenty of ducks to keep everyone smiling!

    "For those that will fight for it...FREEDOM...has a flavor the protected shall never know."
    -L/Cpl Edwin L. "Tim" Craft

  3. #3
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    Lemme me make sure I'm reading this right... Is that graph showing that harvest exceeds shots fired? Or am I crazy?

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
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    Delta in a nutshell: Breeding grounds + small wetlands + big blocks of grass cover + predator removal + nesting structures + enough money to do the job= plenty of ducks to keep everyone smiling!

    "For those that will fight for it...FREEDOM...has a flavor the protected shall never know."
    -L/Cpl Edwin L. "Tim" Craft

  4. #4
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    I wonder if there is correlation between the 21k acres of submersed vegetation on the Santee Cooper lakes from 2009-2014?
    Be proactive about improving public waterfowl habitat in South Carolina. It's not going to happen by itself, and our help is needed. We have the potential to winter thousands of waterfowl on public grounds if we fight for it.

  5. #5
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    Two axis Willy, left is shots fired. Right is harvest. ~5 shots per bird.

  6. #6
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    Duckcrazed is correct. Shots fired are left column numbers, ducks harvested right column numbers. Still working out better details on labeling.
    Genesis 9;2

  7. #7
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    Cant argue with data!
    Except when its incomplete like these numbers are. What you dont see is the fact that ALL of the delta hunts were shut down last year due to flooding. 7 weekends of about 140 less people. Before that, a breach on Murphy- 6 or more people less per week on that side, a busted dike on Cedar, another 6 or so people.
    If you really want to interpret the numbers, Id say that either the state is doing more dikework, or the weather is getting worse...

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    I get it now. That's why I'm not a data analyst.

    All I know is, that's alot of missed shots/lost cripples.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Delta in a nutshell: Breeding grounds + small wetlands + big blocks of grass cover + predator removal + nesting structures + enough money to do the job= plenty of ducks to keep everyone smiling!

    "For those that will fight for it...FREEDOM...has a flavor the protected shall never know."
    -L/Cpl Edwin L. "Tim" Craft

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by formerly bohica View Post
    Cant argue with data!
    Except when its incomplete like these numbers are. What you dont see is the fact that ALL of the delta hunts were shut down last year due to flooding. 7 weekends of about 140 less people. Before that, a breach on Murphy- 6 or more people less per week on that side, a busted dike on Cedar, another 6 or so people.
    If you really want to interpret the numbers, Id say that either the state is doing more dikework, or the weather is getting worse...

    So you think one year and on one smaller holding, as you state last year, discounts the 9 year down trend for all CAT 1s total . Yeah, NO.

    You keep missing the other 6 CAT 1s bud. 5 of which are also failing.

    By the way , these numbers are factual, complete and accurate unless you are saying that SCDNR is falsifying data, They produce the numbers, but with trends like this statewide I don't know how much longer they will even track them. They have already discontinued the Waterfowl advisory board, minimized the banding program to only Mottleds and stopped doing the Mid Winter Waterfowl index. If you don't have data on a subject you have no measure of success nor failure.

    If you want to gather some state information that correlates water levels/ floods/ hurricanes etc to CAT 1 production decrease I would love to see it. There is certainly a correlation no doubt. At any rate the Delta and SCR are in dire trouble as we speak.
    Genesis 9;2

  10. #10
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    Willy, this one is what we are leaning more towards on all futures. Make more sense , easier to read or is it over busy?

    Genesis 9;2

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    A draw hunts success rates should only be measured by quantity of birds and quality of habitat.
    Be proactive about improving public waterfowl habitat in South Carolina. It's not going to happen by itself, and our help is needed. We have the potential to winter thousands of waterfowl on public grounds if we fight for it.

  12. #12
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    2020 summary is out, adding that in soon to the overall CAT 1 totals.

    Bog, I agree that there should be some form of waterfowl counts done and non biased habitat quality observations and statements used to quantify success, especially in that the state is now using drones with photo and video capability.

    What we have now is only an expression of opportunity via shots fired but as well all know what most experience hunters fire ( opportunity) at vs others is two different stories entirely. I do think that with the shell limitations that the shell limits "somewhat" keeps the sky blasting factor out of the equation but that "somewhat" is still a who knows. Lots of variables present for certain.

    We absolutely need a better measure of success to quantify habitat quality, management goals / needs .
    Genesis 9;2

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    Oh yeah, what about all the years Samworth was completely out of the rotation?

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    Quote Originally Posted by formerly bohica View Post
    Oh yeah, what about all the years Samworth was completely out of the rotation?
    Those numbers are accounted for in the graph datum. Again I am not inventing these numbers , you can easily find them.

    Do you keep harvest records on your place? We can graph those out for you as well, not being snarky, just good information to have and the program we are running is pretty easy to use, at least my data guy says it easy.

    Samworth, factually has been going "mostly" down hill since 05 per the numbers, decent year in 2011.

    The below graph doesn't include this years data but looking at the harvest report just now released for 2019/2020 Samworth hosted 11 hunters which harvested 3 ducks for the entire year.

    Genesis 9;2

  15. #15
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    I can interpret that one better, so yes to me, its easier to read.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Delta in a nutshell: Breeding grounds + small wetlands + big blocks of grass cover + predator removal + nesting structures + enough money to do the job= plenty of ducks to keep everyone smiling!

    "For those that will fight for it...FREEDOM...has a flavor the protected shall never know."
    -L/Cpl Edwin L. "Tim" Craft

  16. #16
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    This thread is GAF
    You've got one life. Blaze on!

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by GobblerHntr View Post
    This thread is GAF
    Shutup dummy.
    Genesis 9;2

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