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Thread: Japan To Buy All US Excess Corn

  1. #1
    Mergie Master's Avatar
    Mergie Master is offline Dedicated Tamiecide Practitioner
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    Default Japan To Buy All US Excess Corn

    The Elites don't fear the tall nails, government possesses both the will and the means to crush those folks. What the Elites do fear (or should fear) are the quiet men and women, with low profiles, hard hearts, long memories, and detailed target folders for action as they choose.

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    Now if they can just figure out something on cotton!
    U serious Clark?

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    Corn
    Sep-19 357^6 -2^0
    Dec-19 367^6 +0^0
    Mar-20 379^6 -0^2

    ...and the market yawned.
    Rule #2: Double tap

    The truth is a lie that will get you killed.

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    The fix is in Mo. The only to possibly turn this market quickly is for the Amazon wildfires to destroy all of Brazil's crop and for the entire Midwest to get 18" of snow tonight and then corn might break 4 again....
    cut\'em

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southernduck View Post
    The fix is in Mo. The only to possibly turn this market quickly is for the Amazon wildfires to destroy all of Brazil's crop and for the entire Midwest to get 18" of snow tonight and then corn might break 4 again....
    Yep. We are a long long way from $4 and don't know if anything will change it at this point.

    Looking at the spreads as they sit at close (Z->H .1285, H->N .1525, N->U .035, U->Z .0525), the market thinks there's plenty of corn through the summer but tightening up a good bit before new crop. The July to Sep carry at .035 won't really cover cost-to-carry so I'd be looking to be empty of corn by June and maybe going short Jul/Aug if we get an inverted market.

    Things change pretty fast around here though.

    I missed the mark with the last crop report and had a few guys call options bought at around .13 that are now worth .0125 and probably aren't going anywhere.

    If we'd optioned a put at around the same .13 they'd be worth close to .93 today.

    If we'd strangled it at a 4.60 put and 4.70 call it would have cost about $1300 per 5000bu contract up front, but we'd have protected the downside and had upside potential.

    So for those that booked 5000bu at $4.60 ($23,000) minus the $1300 for the put and call ($21,700+$4,650 put value=$26,350) or $5.27/bu a .67 premium over their booked price.

    But... If they market didn't move after the last report, then the options would likely expire worthless, the farmer is out $1300, and thinks I'm an idiot forever.
    Rule #2: Double tap

    The truth is a lie that will get you killed.

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    Obama made guns sell and Trump made silos sell so the ND farmer told me.
    Low country redneck who moved north

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    Quote Originally Posted by mudflat View Post
    Obama made guns sell and Trump made silos sell so the ND farmer told me.


    That's awesome.
    Rule #2: Double tap

    The truth is a lie that will get you killed.

    Duncraft Pro-Staff

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