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Thread: Farmageddon

  1. #1
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    Default Farmageddon

    Farmageddon

    “This is truly a major national crisis, and it is just getting started …”

    Published 2 days ago on May 17, 2019 By FITSNews


    It is not just the trade war with China threatening to send consumer prices soaring in the months to come …

    Author Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse has a truly frightening post up this week detailing potentially devastating developments for U.S. farmers – which could create both short- and long-term food price spikes for consumers.

    Snyder’s column cites data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) showing that as of Sunday (May 12), only 30 percent of the 2019 corn crop had been seeded – less than half of the five-year average of 66 percent.

    The culprit? Wet weather …

    According to data released earlier this month from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an average of 36.2 inches of rainfall fell on the contiguous 48 states between May 2018 to April 2019 – a new record for a 12-month period.

    Oh, and at the precise moment when farmers desperately need to get their corn in the ground, a pair of huge storms are set to soak the already drenched Great Plains and Midwest over the weekend (and into next week).

    “Corn farmers are up against a wall because crop insurance final planting dates have either already passed or are coming up very quickly,” Snyder wrote. “In addition, for every day after May 15th that corn is not in the ground, farmers lose approximately 2 percent of their yield. Unfortunately, more rain is on the way, and it looks like thousands of corn farmers will not be able to plant corn at all this year. It is no exaggeration to say that what we are facing is a true national catastrophe.”

    This catastrophe has been most pronounced in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and the Dakotas, where current corn crop percentages “are almost too crazy to believe.”

    In North Dakota, for example, only 11 percent of the 2019 crop has been planted – roughly one-quarter the five-year average of 43 percent. Meanwhile in South Dakota, only 4 percent of the crop is in the ground – not even one-tenth the five-year average of 54 percent.

    “Can you imagine what this is going to do to food prices?” he asked.

    It is not just corn, either. USDA data revealed only 9 percent of the nation’s soybean crop was planted – less than one-third the five-year average of 29 percent.

    In Illinois, both crops are reeling … with only 11 percent of corn crops planted (compared to 88 percent a year ago) and only 4 percent of soybean crops planted (compared to 56 percent a year ago).

    Farmers often move to soybeans (which grow later into the fall harvest) in the event their window for planting corn has passed, but there is already an overabundance of this crop – and the trade war is likely to dim prospects for soybean sales to China.

    “This is truly a major national crisis, and it is just getting started,” Snyder warned.

    In South Carolina, farmers planned to plant 1.4 million acres of crops in 2019 according to data (.pdf) released in March by the USDA – down 72,000 acres from the previous year. Soybean (60,000), cotton (10,000) and peanut (22,000) acreage were all supposed to be down, while corn acreage was supposed to climb (60,000).

    Then the record moisture started to take its toll …

    “We’ve had seven months of unbelievable moisture in the Pee Dee, and corn planting has been difficult so far,” Dillon, S.C. farmer Fitzhugh Bethea told The Florence Morning News last month. “Most farmers I talked to (in mid-April) were halfway through planting when they are usually almost finished by now.”

    South Carolina state representative Russell Ott – who represents a district replete with farmers (and whose family is in the farming business) – said he believed Trump’s trade war was primarily to blame.

    “The weather is always volatile so I believe it has more to do with Trump’s trade war than the weather,” Ott told us.

    Ott also indicated the uncertainty underscored the need for ongoing farm subsidies – which this news outlet has steadfastly opposed over the years.

    “It’s a very complicated and delicate dichotomy which is why I’ve always said it is a national security issue,” he told us. “I know people have always railed against federal protections for farmers but what are we going to do when all these farmers go under? Cause they aren’t going to come back.”

  2. #2
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    "what are we going to do?"

    -bid them best wishes in their future endeavors and advise them to try something a little more predictable than weather in the next business model.


    “Muh butts been wiped.” TheBigGuy
    “Poor kids are just as bright and talented as white kids.” PedoPete, Esq.
    “Let’s go Brandon, I agree!” former Vice President Joe Biden
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  3. #3
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    If one goes under there will be someone else willing to take a chance. Spreading fear to keep the checks coming because if they don't we are all gonna starve. Bunch of horseshit.

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    Once again Ott spouting off non sense.

    It doesn't matter what he talks about he is a complete flipping idiot.

    After mentioning weather he goes on to blame Trump.

    Lets don't forget something called the 100 year flood then a hurricane that came right when it was time to gather crops, and then a third year with a hurricane that saw water higher than the 100 year flood 2 years earlier.

    Nope, all of that was Trump's fault.

    The SC farmers had it bad way before this year and many of them had folded or cut back in attempts to save the farm so to speak of.

    I do agree with his statement:
    “It’s a very complicated and delicate dichotomy which is why I’ve always said it is a national security issue,” he told us. “I know people have always railed against federal protections for farmers but what are we going to do when all these farmers go under? Cause they aren’t going to come back.”

    But apparently he is listening to CNN and not what Trump says.

    Back this past Tuesday Trump said the farmers would get 15 BILLION strait off the top of the tariffs. That was on top of any normal subsidies, and Steven Munichin was just on tv talking about the 15 could actually grow to 22 depending on what China does.

    Now is the time to break China. We can sustain our farmers financially. I just don't know if we can sustain our selves with food.

    Yes, all of us on the Ducks page can scratch out enough food and have enough sense or have had enough sense to can and put food back. I'm worried about the cities and the roving hoards of zombie like creatures that will besiege us when their food runs out.
    Yup, he's crazy...


    like a fox. The dude may be coming in a little too hard and crazy but 90% of everything he says is correct.

    Sort of like Toof. But way smarter.
    ~Scatter Shot

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    wet weather. Ha.
    Unless we get some major rain in upper Dorchester County the corn crop will be another bust. Already seeing fields curl & look parched. And we’ve only had a couple of 90 degree days. i’ve been around the entire county and some look good, some look rough. Most are in the spraying stage. Incipient drought status. I love when they say that. Unless you invest $60k in irrigation you will part of the statistics. Mother nature always trumps trump and any other long standing idiot politician this state has.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackTom View Post
    wet weather. Ha.
    Unless we get some major rain in upper Dorchester County the corn crop will be another bust. Already seeing fields curl & look parched. And we’ve only had a couple of 90 degree days. i’ve been around the entire county and some look good, some look rough. Most are in the spraying stage. Incipient drought status. I love when they say that. Unless you invest $60k in irrigation you will part of the statistics. Mother nature always trumps trump and any other long standing idiot politician this state has.
    Everything in the bend is looking rough. We need rain and need it bad.

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    I would be more worried about what some are calling the "Death Ridge" of high pressure that is gonna bake us in extreme temps starting Friday
    Gettin old is for pussies! AND MY NEW TRUE people say like Capt. Tom >>>>>>>>>/
    "Wow, often imitated but never duplicated. No one can do it like the master. My hat is off to you DRDUCK!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by DRDUCK View Post
    I would be more worried about what some are calling the "Death Ridge" of high pressure that is gonna bake us in extreme temps starting Friday
    Ouch....

    temp.jpg

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    take a look at next Sunday on.
    Gettin old is for pussies! AND MY NEW TRUE people say like Capt. Tom >>>>>>>>>/
    "Wow, often imitated but never duplicated. No one can do it like the master. My hat is off to you DRDUCK!"

  10. #10
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    Other than that...June and July really don't look too bad (temp wise) on accuweather. Forecast to barely touch 90 in June and July. I've never looked at weather out that far so I have no idea how accurate that is but no 90's, I can live with that. On the flip side, no real rain until mid-June.
    Last edited by reeltight; 05-19-2019 at 02:34 PM.

  11. #11
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    We need the rain bad too.

    But I think the article is on the mid west and how that will drive food prices.

    Ott just happened to step in it while commenting acting as if the SC farmers issues all of a sudden started this year and was Trumps fault.
    Yup, he's crazy...


    like a fox. The dude may be coming in a little too hard and crazy but 90% of everything he says is correct.

    Sort of like Toof. But way smarter.
    ~Scatter Shot

  12. #12
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    JAB.
    What does the weather forecast you were using to track the hurricanes say as far as the next chance SC has for rain?
    Yup, he's crazy...


    like a fox. The dude may be coming in a little too hard and crazy but 90% of everything he says is correct.

    Sort of like Toof. But way smarter.
    ~Scatter Shot

  13. #13
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    We got 5" the other day, but it is drying out quick. I talked to my cousin from Charleston earlier and he was saying how dry it was there. 7" below normal I think. I was astonished as we must be 3 million over by now. Then y'all piped up and I was further surprised. We have usually heard plenty of bitching out of Newberry by now, so I just figured everyone was getting soaked. I would be looking for afternoon popups as the heat wave hits. The fronts seem to be petering out before they get this far east, and Dr. Duck's Death Pressure thing will further reinforce that barrier.

  14. #14
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    It's terrible the amount of fields out this way that still have standing water in them and can't even be prepped to be planted. Lots of corn and beans won't get planted this year and people are even worried about getting the rice in the ground. The nightmare started last fall for these farmers struggling to get the crops in and now they can't get the fields replanted. We are at over 70% of our annual rainfall right now. The wife of one of our guys owns a flying service and is stressed at how far behind they are. The 1.5" we got last night didn't us any favors either. We've got a bunch of cruising to do in the Saline river bottoms and we won't get to it anytime soon. That gate is still about 8' under water.
    For the ducks

  15. #15
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    That is about the situation SC farmers were in 2 years ago.

    Over lunch I was explaining how bad the situation was, and referenced this thread.

    People are quite naive about how farming world today. They assume it is how it use to be.

    Her answer was that we would see a bunch of tractors fired up and head to the field to plant for us locally.

    I responded with what tractors. She looked puzzled.

    I explained most tractors are leased these days, and lot of farmers have folded over the past 3 years. There is no tractor or implements to fire up and go to work.

    If we needed to build food plots for deer we would be over whelmed with help, but to actually go grow food on a industrial scale to feed a population it just isn't there.

    She was shocked. She went and did just a little digging and came back as I was napping, and begrudgingly let me know in a sorta way I was right.

    I also pointed out as far as produce goes we are golden. We have a huge cannery right here in the Pee Dee. A lot of the farmers went to produce to stay alive after all the floods and hurricanes. So we are good there.

    But everything has corn in it. Its amazing what all it is in. but the biggest component is how to feed all the live stock!

    I suspect we will see pork bellies sky rocket in the fall. It will not be any better for chicken or beef!
    Yup, he's crazy...


    like a fox. The dude may be coming in a little too hard and crazy but 90% of everything he says is correct.

    Sort of like Toof. But way smarter.
    ~Scatter Shot

  16. #16
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    Pork in general is going to be astronomical here shortly.

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    The Chinese love pork and about half of their pork supply is dead from African Swine Fever. They should be buying our pork but oh wait they own the largest pork processor in the US, Smithfield Foods. In general farming is in tough shape right now, inputs have not adjusted to commodity prices, everything rose with the increase in 11-12 and nothing has backed off other than some fertilizer. Equipment in particular is way too high as is seed. There needs to be a serious push up in commodities or a large reduction in inputs. It would also help if the Midwest would back off their marginal acres that came in to production with the run up in prices 8 years ago. There is a very real possibility of a collapse of the AG sector in the Midwest.
    cut\'em

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    Quote Originally Posted by JABIII View Post
    Pork in general is going to be astronomical here shortly.
    You are correct. West wind bout 15-20 will dry the soil quick as you well know. Back watering as soon as I get back from the Tennis courts in the morning.
    Gettin old is for pussies! AND MY NEW TRUE people say like Capt. Tom >>>>>>>>>/
    "Wow, often imitated but never duplicated. No one can do it like the master. My hat is off to you DRDUCK!"

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southernduck View Post
    The Chinese love pork and about half of their pork supply is dead from African Swine Fever. They should be buying our pork but oh wait they own the largest pork processor in the US, Smithfield Foods. In general farming is in tough shape right now, inputs have not adjusted to commodity prices, everything rose with the increase in 11-12 and nothing has backed off other than some fertilizer. Equipment in particular is way too high as is seed. There needs to be a serious push up in commodities or a large reduction in inputs. It would also help if the Midwest would back off their marginal acres that came in to production with the run up in prices 8 years ago. There is a very real possibility of a collapse of the AG sector in the Midwest.
    Obviously everyone wants to see prices go up that means more money, but that isn't what is needed according to the over all economy.

    The prices of inputs have artificially been kept high due to known subsidies coming in.

    What needs to happen is the bottom drop out of inputs especially tractors. They have gotten outrageous and less quality in trade for more electronics.

    The seed is kept high by several monopolies.

    Those 2 factors need to get in line with the rest of the economy.

    With the midwest like they are the Tractors may have to come down.

    Hopefully if anything comes about Bayer being sued with Round up maybe its seed prices will tumble.

    I'm not sure how to get Dow and BASF down.
    Yup, he's crazy...


    like a fox. The dude may be coming in a little too hard and crazy but 90% of everything he says is correct.

    Sort of like Toof. But way smarter.
    ~Scatter Shot

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by DRDUCK View Post
    take a look at next Sunday on.
    Going to be a bit on the warm side.
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    The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is,
    as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.

    Thomas Jefferson

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