College football's goliaths have only gotten stronger.

A year ago, it seemed either Alabama or Clemson were almost destined to hoist the national championship trophy. Now, even more so.

Let's start with the most outrageous number: According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, the Tigers have an 83 percent chance to reach the playoff.

Though they lost some imposing defensive talent in their front seven, the reigning champs have stability at head coach and a superstar talent returning at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence -- both key factors in earning the confidence of ESPN's Football Power Index. And while FPI had Clemson as the top team this time last year, it thinks this season's squad is almost 4 points per game better than what it thought of Dabo Swinney's team 12 months ago.

Add in the fact that the Tigers' schedule rates as only the 56th-hardest among FBS teams, and it's just hard to fathom how Clemson could not make the committee's top four come Selection Day. We'll hazard a guess that over the next decade, no team will have a higher preseason chance to reach the playoff -- per our model -- than Clemson has right now.

To put the Tigers' schedule into perspective: Their most difficult game, per FPI, is at South Carolina on Nov. 30. Alabama also plays at South Carolina, but that game is the Crimson Tide's fifth-most difficult game.

Not that Alabama is in rough shape. The Tide have a 71 percent chance to reach the playoff -- trailing Clemson, yes, but well ahead of where Playoff Predictor had Alabama a year ago. Though our impression of Alabama took a hit in last season's national championship game, the Tide also have tremendous potential, with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm of the offense again.

Ultimately, there is a 23 percent shot that Alabama and Clemson meet again in the national championship game. And whether they play each other or not, there's a 64 percent chance one of the two ends up as champion.

Michigan, Georgia lead group of challengers

While the Tigers and Tide being the top playoff candidates is a surprise to exactly no one, the next-most likely team to earn the affection of the selection committee might raise some eyebrows: Michigan.

The Wolverines have failed to reach the playoff thus far, but they are in a better situation now than ever in the playoff era. Coach Jim Harbaugh is bringing back eight starters on offense, including quarterback Shea Patterson, who tied for eighth in Total QBR a season ago.

The result is that FPI expects Michigan to have the best offense (and team) in the Big Ten, catching some of its division rivals in what could be a down season. Ultimately, Playoff Predictor thinks Michigan has a 41 percent shot at the playoff. However, it's worth noting that FPI is awfully low on Ohio State -- maybe even too low -- because it isn't explicitly aware that the Buckeyes have added via transfer an elite quarterback prospect in Justin Fields (transfer QBs in FPI are noted only when they have significant starting experience).

On the other hand, a new head coach-QB tandem does increase variance for Ohio State, and when you're at the top, variance is a bad thing. No team is in better position than Michigan to seize the reins of the Big Ten and take advantage if the new crew in Columbus doesn't work out right away.

Though Georgia -- which also is bringing back a known quantity in Jake Fromm at QB -- is a longer shot to reach the playoff than Michigan, it has a better chance of actually winning the national championship. It makes sense: Most (including FPI) would agree that the Bulldogs are better than the Wolverines, but their path the top four is more complicated with Alabama and LSU in the same conference.

http://www.espn.com/college-football...makes-top-four