1998-99 to 2017-18 Average Duck Season Temperatures...

[Rubberhead*]

I ran a correlation to the number of ducks I killed each season and there is almost no correlation at all (R²=1.9%). But, I have changed when, where and how I hunt a lot over the last 20 years.

DST.jpg

[2thDoc]

math dork alert

[2thDoc]

(you know I'm kidding. I like numbers. and you. but not in a weird way)

[Rabbitman09]

That graph is pretty accurate for me pertaining to wild mallard kills and average temperature. I killed some this past year and killed none the previous 2 years. Killed a few 3 and 4 years ago. I can't remember past then. Teal, gadwall, shovelers, etc. come here regardless of temps.
-Also, did kill a few blue bills last years. Did not kill many if any the last 2 years. Cold winter equals variety of ducks.

[lil 2 sleepy]

You plotted the temperature over that last 20 years, but don't show the number of ducks in the correlation (you mentioned it).
I think you are just scared to show how bad a shot you are.

[Rubberhead*]

You plotted the temperature over that last 20 years, but don't show the number of ducks in the correlation (you mentioned it).
I think you are just scared to show how bad a shot you are.

You've got a great point - maybe I should plot against the number of shells I shot instead of the ducks I killed...

[JBK]

The more years I hunt the less I kill...I will not make a graph. It would make me depressed. I don't even want to think about the dollar per duck graph. That would make me sick.

[uga_dawg]

What about a correlation to the lowest temperature? The average temperatures might not show the true cold front. Also be interesting to look for a correlation between the average temperature of the north.

[Rubberhead*]

What about a correlation to the lowest temperature? The average temperatures might not show the true cold front. Also be interesting to look for a correlation between the average temperature of the north.

All I had easily available was monthly HDD/CDD data - I picked Columbia as a proxy for the state.. I could pull monthly data from "up north" but don't really know where to start? Upper Midwest, North Alantic, maybe even south central US.

For us, it might have more to do with a good growing season that local weather.

[2thDoc]

so, i guess I confirmed the ignore list thingie...

[MolliesMaster]

Did you take into account numbers of days afield? Just curious.

[Rubberhead*]

Did you take into account numbers of days afield? Just curious.

Nope. Just ducks vs. total Degree Days

[MolliesMaster]

I only took one semester of probs and stats, but could you get a better picture if you averaged ducks per day of hunting and correlated that to the weather each year?

Some years you may have hunted more, for less per day, skewing the results. I know there are a ton of variables, as you've mentioned already. It just got my mind turning.

[Rubberhead*]

so, i guess I confirmed the ignore list thingie...

You can't blame a guy for trying...

IT.jpg

[Rubberhead*]

I only took one semester of probs and stats, but could you get a better picture if you averaged ducks per day of hunting and correlated that to the weather each year?

Some years you may have hunted more, for less per day, skewing the results. I know there are a ton of variables, as you've mentioned already. It just got my mind turning.

I have sliced and diced the data so many, many ways. This graph as more to give other SC duckers some weather data to look back on for themselves...

[cajunwannabe]

Habitat condition
Water levels (drought, flood, etc.)

If you want to get crazy add:
Temp's
Wind direction / speed
Tide levels / rising or falling
Moon Phases
It would be great to know all those factors too.

I have never kept a journal, just hunted. It would be cool to keep stats on hunts tho. (other than # of shots fired and misses.....I have never proclaimed to be a good shot) I don't trust the DU app, pen and paper would be it for me....I'm certain "free" apps track folks locations and data.

[Rubberhead*]

The best piece of data I had from my personal stuff was ducks vs. the moon phase....there's definitely something at work here...but, there are a lot of side variables not included in this too.

The red line is the visible disk of the moon read as a percent on the right hand axis, the blue bars are total ducks during that day in the lunar cycle...

[Rubberhead*]

Habitat condition
Water levels (drought, flood, etc.)

If you want to get crazy add:
Temp's
Wind direction / speed
Tide levels / rising or falling
Moon Phases
It would be great to know all those factors too.

I have never kept a journal, just hunted. It would be cool to keep stats on hunts tho. (other than # of shots fired and misses.....I have never proclaimed to be a good shot) I don't trust the DU app, pen and paper would be it for me....I'm certain "free" apps track folks locations and data.

Degrees of freedom because an issue when I try too many variables.

[uga_dawg]

All I had easily available was monthly HDD/CDD data - I picked Columbia as a proxy for the state.. I could pull monthly data from "up north" but don't really know where to start? Upper Midwest, North Alantic, maybe even south central US.

For us, it might have more to do with a good growing season that local weather.

Just thinking out loud and showing off to 2th that I'm not on the ignore list.

The place they sent the duck nests might be an interesting start to look for a correlation. Or maybe the first day temps got below x degrees. Something to identify the seasons that had an earlier cold snap than others.

[Rubberhead*]

I have, at some point, tried many of these "independent variables" without a lot of notable success. Not so say someone might not come up with something I haven’t tried, just that I’ve been thinking about this for a lot of years. It’s the whole reason I started keeping a detailed database 30 years ago.

I’ve even tried to get data from the USFWS using wing-surveys and band returns. It turns out there’s so much trash in their data it was beyond my interest level to try to clean it.

In the end, birds are mysterious and I doubt anyone will ever find a formula to kill ducks…even if they do what fun would that be?

Okay, it would be fun…