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Thread: DU forecasting doom

  1. #1
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    ARKANSAS SPORTSMAN : Loss of duck habitat will have far-reaching effects
    BRYAN HENDRICKS

    Posted on Sunday, January 20, 2008

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    For months, Ducks Unlimited has been forecasting doom over the loss of duck nesting habitat in the Prairie Pothole region.

    I generally recoil from overt pessimism, but in this case, DU is probably right.

    Thanks to the federal government’s aggressive promotion of ethanol as an alternative to petroleum fuel, the price of corn is stratospheric and rising. Consequently, farmers in the Prairie Pothole Region are plowing up productive waterfowl nesting habitat to grow corn. Some are doing this after choosing not to re-enroll their land in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP ). Others are taking their land out of the CRP early. Corn prices are so high that it’s worth it to pay the penalty.

    Taxpayer-funded programs like the CRP and Wetland Reserve Program (WRP ) are thin barrier islands that protect natural resources against the surging seas of the free market. A high spike in the corn market is showing us just how fragile that barrier is.

    Instead, it would be more effective to conceive an entrepreneurial solution that can compete economically with market forces.

    At least, it would be if American agriculture was truly a free market enterprise. Because the federal government has great influence over the supply, demand and price for agricultural products, America’s agricultural economy is largely insulated from free-market influences, and agricultural producers are largely insulated from free-market risks.

    Congress has caused the corn market surge, so Congress is also responsible for the ripples that radiate from it, including loss of valuable wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region. We’re talking primarily about effects on migratory waterfowl, which travel across state lines, but these changes also affect nonmigratory birds, such as ringneck pheasants, that thrive in CRP habitat.

    Both situations involve interstate commerce, which the federal government regulates. Duck hunting, which can accurately be described as interstate commerce, supports vibrant economies in the states along the Mississippi Flyway, largely because of the revenue it generates from hunters who come here from other states. Pheasants also generate significant interstate commerce in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa by attracting hunters from many other states.

    By influencing one sector of the economy by artificially inflating the corn market, Congress will inevitably disrupt another sector of the economy that depends on hunting migratory and nonmigratory gamebirds, both of which depend on U. S. Department of Agriculture conservation programs. This will cause shortages of migratory and nonmigratory waterfowl, which will create a long-term recession, if not an outright depression, in their respective hunting markets. That, in turn, will depress state sales tax revenues, state hunting license revenues, federal and state duck stamp revenues, federal excise tax revenues on guns, ammunition, hunting equipment and gasoline, and finally, jobs for Arkansas citizens.

    If Congress causes a shortage of ducks and pheasants, it should be responsible for mitigating associated market losses by either increasing funding for conservation programs or by providing other ways for landowners to conserve wildlife habitat.

    It is an established fact that the public owns America’s wildlife. Because wildlife is publicly owned, all taxpayers are as much responsible for ensuring the integrity and abundance of our nation’s wildlife as we are for underwriting the development of alternative fuels.

    In the present economic environment, farmers make more money planting corn than they do keeping their land in the CRP or WRP. Individual conservationists and conservation organizations can’t buy enough land for habitat or offer landowners enough money for permanent conservation easements. There is currently no alternative land use scenario that is more lucrative than producing a grain with an artificially inflated value.

    Since interstate commerce and public resources are at risk, our lawmakers must be creative and proactive in finding other ways to make it economically attractive to farmers to manage their land for conservation. One obvious solution might be to amend the tax code to give farmers credit for losses they would sustain by keeping their land in the CRP instead of planting it in corn or other crops. Say, for example, a farmer makes a certain amount of money a year in CRP payments, but he could net seven times more by planting it in corn. He might be inclined to keep it in the CRP if he were awarded a tax credit for the difference. Or, perhaps, a tax credit for part of the difference and a nontaxable rebate for the rest.

    These things are beyond the influence of the average citizen, so we trust our elected officials to conserve our treasured natural resources. To lose even a little of what we’ve gained since the early 1990 s is not acceptable.

  2. #2
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    The USA has nothing resembling a free market economy. Not even close. What we have is a corporatocracy. Everyone, including those who consider themselves small government conservatives, believe that it is the government's role to "create jobs", and manage the economy. Not one of the Republican candidates would even consider saying that its not the government's role to deliver an "economic recovery package". It is in the field of economics that the government becomes the 900 pound gorilla.

    Oh, modern day conservatives all play the game, pretending to oppose government regulation on irrelevent things like motorcycle helmets. And they are always willing to take on health, safety, and economic regulation that is inconvenient to their corporate sponsors. But where it really matters, economic policy, nary a peep about incentives, targeted tax breaks, subsidies, "economic stimulus packages", and all of the other tools the state, local, and Federal government uses to CENTRALLY MANAGE THE ECONOMY.


    Consequently, we get idiocy like the ethanol program, which has nothing to do with a viable energy alternative, and everything to do with pandering to midwestern farmers, agribusiness, and the oil companies.

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    I read an article last week where almost all Canadian farmers are switching from spring wheat to winter wheat. Spring wheat cannot compete on yield with winter wheat. This will be true for the Dakotas as well.

    **Winter wheat beats DNC(Dense Nesting Cover)on nesting success, which DU has been promoting for years. Winter wheat averages around 35% nesting success where as DNC averages between 10-15% nesting success. This will be a boom for ducks and especially pintails.

    The sky is not falling.


    **figures were provided by the Prairie Habitat Joint Venture which is made up of Canadian and DU biologists.

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    The nesting figures are very exciting but, unfortunatly, the article referenced was not much more than a presser by the Wheat Board guys hoping to get more of "their" crop looked at favorably. After reading it I spoke to the 3 farmers whose lands we typically hunt and none had any plans to plant winter wheat. In Sask they planted a mere 600,000 acres Province wide but that, in and of itself, is still encouraging from a nesting success standpoint. Winter wheat will probably never supplant durum anyway but maybe we will start seeing them rotate it into the mix. NoDak farmers planted a bit more winter wheat this year while SoDak farmers planted less. Maybe someone could stick some ALUS funding in for producers who plant winter wheat within X number of yards of sloughs, lakes, and potholes...

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    Winter wheat trend growing, farmers told
    Last Updated: Tuesday, January 8, 2008 | 3:28 PM CT
    CBC News
    Interest in winter wheat could snowball in the years ahead, a Manitoba agriculture consultant says.

    Although the high-starch, high-yield variety has traditionally been a small part of the Canadian wheat harvest, that could be changing, says Greg Kostal, president of Winnipeg-based Kostal Ag Consulting.

    Since 2002, fewer hectares of spring wheat have been seeded, while more hectares of winter wheat have been planted.
    (CBC) He's predicting that demand for winter wheat, which is planted in the fall, will soon outstrip spring wheat.

    In fact, Kostal told farmers at a meeting of the Saskatchewan Winter Cereals Development Commission in Saskatoon Monday, the day isn't far off when spring wheat will be little more than a specialty crop.

    There are a number of reasons more and more farmers are turning to winter wheat, he said.

    For one thing, the yields are better.

    "The high-yielding mid-quality wheats, at least from a revenue side, will, I think, have greater opportunity to generate more profit consistently over hard red spring wheat right now," he said.

    The high starch content of winter wheat also makes it more attractive to the ethanol and livestock markets, he said.

    By planting wheat in fall, farmers can avoid many of the disease and weather problems of spring-seeded crops, Kostal said.

    And now that Canada has abandoned research into genetically modified wheat, he doesn't think spring wheat will be able to remain competitive, he said.

    In five or ten years, it might be a specialty crop that caters to a premium market, Kostal said.

    MLA agrees winter wheat attractive
    Glen Hart, the MLA for Last Mountain-Touchwood who farms with his son near Cupar, Sask., agreed with Kostal that simple economics make winter wheat attractive.

    For one thing, the costs of production are lower "because you can avoid some of the pesticides and some of the herbicides," he said.

    Hart isn't so sure winter wheat production will ever outstrip that of spring wheat, but he does believe more farmers will grow winter wheat, if only to meet the growing demand for high-starch wheat to fuel the ethanol and livestock markets.

    That will cut into the supply of wheat for the food market for things like bread and cake.

    According to Statistics Canada, spring wheat is still king — almost 10 times more hectares of spring wheat than hectares of winter wheat were planted last year.

    However, over the past five years, the number of acres of spring wheat seeded declined about 25 per cent, compared to a rise of about 60 per cent for winter wheat.


    --------------


    Here's an important point;

    And now that Canada has abandoned research into genetically modified wheat, he doesn't think spring wheat will be able to remain competitive, he said.


    Your contacts in Canada won't be planting spring wheat for many more years. Competition will dictate what they plant.

  6. #6
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    Originally posted by Catdaddy:
    Hart isn't so sure winter wheat production will ever outstrip that of spring wheat, but he does believe more farmers will grow winter wheat, if only to meet the growing demand for high-starch wheat to fuel the ethanol and livestock markets.
    "Your contacts in Canada won't be planting spring wheat for many more years. "

    Until the world decides to give up pastas, breads, and the multitude of daily foodstuffs that come from durum wheat, I wouldn't bet the farm on it. The ethanol boom will bust...

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    DUCKMAN is offline Moderator - Traveling Duck Assasin
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    There are many "other" problems associated with transitioning from spring wheat to winter wheat. Ag loans in Canada are traditionally limited to 6 months - winter wheat is an 8 month crop. Spring wheat can be harvested on frozen ground while winter wheat can not be planted in frozen ground which can occur as early as October(not lately!) Many farmers are not able to harvest the spring wheat until well after the planting dates for winter wheat. Most Canadien farmers can not lay out a year of planting to get their winter wheat in the ground in August-September. DU has worked for years trying to get this done. Many biologist feel the direct decline of the pintail is a direct result of the planting of spring wheat and the planting of winter wheat would restore the pintail population to historic levels. I would love to see the complete transition to winter wheat but many hurdles remain.
    DUCKMAN<br /><br />\"If you love waterfowl - support DU and the Flyway Foundation!!\"

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    Hell if it keeps warming up, they will soon have the 120 days they need to grow the yellow stuff...

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    DUCKMAN is offline Moderator - Traveling Duck Assasin
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    So damn very true! LOL
    DUCKMAN<br /><br />\"If you love waterfowl - support DU and the Flyway Foundation!!\"

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